NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka Prediction

HNK Rijeka walk into this HNL fixture at NK Slaven Belupo's ground carrying the kind of momentum that makes bookmakers sweat. Their last five matches read 3W 2D 0L — 2.2 points per game, 14 goals scored, just 2 conceded. The current run tells the story: two wins in a row, nine goals, zero conceded. That is not a coincidence; it is a team clicking on all cylinders.

The away numbers back it up. Over their last 20 away games, Rijeka have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.5 points per game and conceding just 0.9 per match. Nine of those 20 away games ended in clean sheets. That defensive solidity on the road is the real story here. Slaven Belupo's home defence, by contrast, has conceded 1.6 per game across their last 20 home fixtures, with only 6 clean sheets in that span.

The head-to-head at this venue is telling. In the four recent meetings between these sides, Rijeka have won two — both 2–0 — and drawn two. At Slaven Belupo's ground specifically, the scores were 0–2 and 1–1. Rijeka have not lost here in the recent window. The 2025 meeting at this ground (1–1) and the 2026 April away win (2–0) paint a consistent picture: Rijeka control this fixture.

Slaven Belupo's recent form, though, is a concern. Their last 10 matches across all venues show 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses — 1.0 points per game. They conceded 1.8 per game in that stretch and failed to score in 4 of 10. Their last match was a 1–2 loss to Olimpija Ljubljana in a friendly, and before that a 0–1 defeat at Hajduk Split. The 5–0 cup win over Hrvatski Dragovoljac and the 2–1 home victory over Lokomotiva are bright spots, but the overall trajectory is downward.

The counter-argument is that Slaven Belupo do have home form. Their 20-game home record shows 7 wins and 5 draws, and they scored 1.45 per game at home in that span. The H2H has produced two draws in the last four meetings, and Slaven Belupo's home attack (1.45 per game) actually outperforms Rijeka's away attack (1.25 per game) in the comparison table. That is a legitimate reason the market prices this at 1.65 rather than shorter.

But the weight of evidence — Rijeka's current run, their away defensive record, the H2H dominance, and Slaven Belupo's poor recent form — tips the balance firmly. The market's 60.61% implied probability on the away win looks slightly conservative given what the numbers show. I rate Rijeka's chance of winning here at roughly 67%, which puts the 1.65 price in positive territory.

Key Points:

• HNK Rijeka are unbeaten in their last five matches (3W 2D), scoring 14 and conceding 2

• Rijeka's away record: 8W 6D 6L in 20 games, 0.9 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets

• H2H at this venue: Rijeka won 1, drew 1 (0–2, 1–1); no Slaven Belupo wins in recent meetings

• Slaven Belupo's last 10: 3W 1D 6L, 1.8 conceded per game, 4 failures to score

• Market prices Rijeka at 60.61%; the evidence supports a higher probability

Verdict: HNK Rijeka away win at 1.65.