NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin Prediction

Welcome back to the kennel, pups and punters! Today we’re sniffing out value in the HNL clash between NK Slaven Belupo and NK Varazdin. While the bookmakers have drawn a near-even line on this fixture, NK Varazdin arrives at the away end priced at 2.70, making them the official underdog on the board. As a tipster who lives for backing the overlooked, I see this as a prime opportunity to support a side that has been delivering elite results while the market remains skeptical.

NK Slaven Belupo is fighting for survival in the table, sitting in 9th place with just 1 point from their opening day. Their recent trajectory is deeply concerning: over their last 10 matches, they have managed just 2 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, yielding a dismal 0.70 points per game. Defensively, they are leaking goals, conceding an average of 2.30 per game and keeping just one clean sheet in their last 10 outings. At home, the picture is equally bleak; they have lost 57.14% of their last 7 home fixtures, conceding 2.00 goals per game. Their last competitive outing saw them go down 2-0 to league leaders Dinamo Zagreb, highlighting the gap in quality.

In stark contrast, NK Varazdin is the picture of consistency and attacking threat. Sitting 5th in the standings with 3 points from their opener, their last 10 games read like a masterclass: 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses. They are averaging 2.40 points per game and scoring 1.70 goals per match while keeping a tight defensive ship, conceding just 0.90 per game. Their away form is particularly lethal, boasting a 60% win rate on the road with 1.40 goals scored per away fixture. They recently proved their mettle by dismantling HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 in their opening HNL match, and before that, they navigated a tough European tie against FK Jablonec, winning 3-2 at home.

History heavily favors the visitors. In their last 10 meetings, NK Varazdin has won 6 times compared to Slaven Belupo’s 3 wins, with only 1 draw. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 to Varazdin in April 2026. Statistically, Varazdin’s shot accuracy sits at a razor-sharp 47.6%, compared to Slaven’s 31.1%, and they average 11.67 shots per game. The goal expectancy model points to a high-scoring affair, with projected totals of 1.43 for the home side and 1.70 for the visitors. With Slaven Belupo’s defense averaging 2.00 goals conceded at home and Varazdin’s attack finding the net regularly, the visitors are perfectly positioned to exploit the gaps.

Despite the travel and the home advantage given to Slaven Belupo by the market, NK Varazdin’s underlying metrics, recent results, and head-to-head dominance scream value. At 2.70, we are being paid to back a team that wins 80% of their matches and concedes less than a goal a game. This is exactly the kind of mispriced underdog I live for.

Key Points:

• NK Varazdin has won 8 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.40 points per game.

• Slaven Belupo has lost 7 of their last 10 games, conceding an average of 2.30 goals per match.

• NK Varazdin boasts a 60% away win rate and keeps clean sheets in 40% of their recent outings.

• Head-to-head record heavily favors the visitors, with 6 wins in the last 10 meetings.

• Shot accuracy and goal expectancy models strongly point towards a Varazdin victory.

I am backing the pup to run away with this fixture. My pick is the Away Win at odds of 2.70.