NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Croatian scrap between NK Varazdin and HNK Rijeka. The home side are sitting pretty in 4th with 16 points, while Rijeka are lagging a bit in 7th on 14 points. But don't let them league positions fool you - this could be anyone's game.

Varazdin have been decent lately, picking up 5 wins from their last 10 games. They're banging in 1.9 goals per game, which ain't bad at all. They even managed to beat league leaders Hajduk Split 2-0 at home and held Dinamo Zagreb to a 2-2 draw. But here's the thing - they actually score fewer goals at home (1.40 per game) than they do on their travels. Funny old game, innit?

Rijeka, on the other hand, have been a bit hit and miss. Four wins from 10 isn't setting the world alight, but they did put four past NK Osijek recently and even beat Sparta Praha in Europe. Their away form is proper dodgy though - only winning 28% of their road trips. They do keep things tight at the back though, conceding exactly a goal per game on average.

When these two have met, it's been dead even - three wins each and three draws. The last time they played, back in August, Varazdin nicked it 2-1 away from home. Most of their recent meetings have been tight, low-scoring affairs, with only 3 out of 9 going over 2.5 goals.

Both teams are solid defensively, both conceding exactly 1.00 goals per game. Varazdin might have the edge in attack with 1.90 goals per game compared to Rijeka's 1.60, but at home, they're not quite as prolific.

The bookies have got Rijeka as slight favorites at 2.20, which seems a bit generous given their away struggles. But looking at the goal markets, Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 catches my eye. Both teams know how to defend, and their head-to-head record suggests we're in for another tight one rather than a goal fest.