Northampton vs Leyton Orient Prediction

Howzit china! Grab a cold Castle Lager and fire up the braai because we've got a lekker relegation six-pointer coming up from Sixfields. Northampton Town host Leyton Orient in a massive League One clash where three points could be the difference between safety and the drop.

Now, I know what you're thinking - Northampton just took a 4-0 klap from Lincoln on Tuesday. But hold your horses, that Lincoln side is proper quality sitting second in the table with 2.40 points per game in their last ten. Before that hiding, the Cobblers were cooking nicely at home with wins against Stevenage (3-1) and a solid cup run. At Sixfields, they're banging in 2 goals per game and have a decent 50% win rate in their last four home outings.

But here's the real meat for the braai - Northampton absolutely owns this fixture like a Springbok lock owns the lineout. The Cobblers have an 80% win rate at home against Leyton Orient, winning four and drawing one of their last five meetings here. Overall H2H, it's 6 wins to 1 in Northampton's favour. That's not just dominance, that's a proper boere-tannies potjiekos level of control.

Now let's talk about Leyton Orient, or should I say the Leyton Orient away day disaster show. The O's haven't won a single game in their last four away trips (0% win rate) and have scored a pathetic 0.25 goals per game on the road. That's right, china, one goal in four away matches! They couldn't find the back of the net if you gave them a GPS and a map. Their last away result was a 3-0 drubbing by Doncaster, who are only averaging 0.80 points per game themselves.

Sure, Orient did manage a 3-1 win against Reading and a draw with Cardiff recently, showing they can raise their game against the big boys, but their travel sickness is chronic. Conceding 2 goals per game away from home while barely scoring makes them prime candidates for a proper hiding.

The bookies have Northampton at 2.62, which is lekker value if you ask me. With the home advantage, the desperate need for points (20th vs 21st), and that dominant H2H record, the Cobblers should be shorter than this. Leyton Orient at 2.55 is shorter than the home side, which makes about as much sense as putting salad on a boerewors roll.

Key Points:

• Northampton boast an 80% home win rate against Leyton Orient (4 wins, 1 draw in last 5 home meetings)

• Leyton Orient have 0% win rate in last 4 away games, scoring just 0.25 goals per game on the road

• Northampton average 2.00 goals per game at home compared to Orient's 0.25 away

• Both teams desperate for points in relegation battle (20th vs 21st, separated by just 1 point)

• Northampton have scored 3+ goals in 2 of their last 4 home matches

• Leyton Orient have conceded 3+ goals in 3 of their last 10 games

Summary:

This is a no-brainer for me. Northampton's home dominance over Orient is biblical, and the O's can't buy a goal away from Brisbane Road. At 2.62, the Cobblers represent serious value against a side that's been softer than pap on the road. Get on Northampton to win and let's make some money for the weekend's braai!