Northampton vs Stockport County Prediction

Right then, let's kick off the New Year with a proper League One dust-up at Sixfields. Northampton, sitting 16th, host Stockport County, who are flying a bit higher in 6th. On paper, you'd fancy the away side, but football's not played on paper, is it? Let's have a proper look.

Northampton have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act lately. At home, they're a different animal – winning two-thirds of their last six here and banging in nearly two goals a game (1.83 to be precise). They put three past AFC Wimbledon just before Christmas and saw off Mansfield Town 2-1 here in November. But blimey, they also shipped five at Burton on Boxing Day! That tells you everything: they can score, but they can also leak goals. In fact, both teams have scored in a whopping 70% of their last ten games overall.

Stockport County, meanwhile, are the draw specialists. Five draws in their last ten tells its own story. They're solid enough on the road, winning 40% of their last five away trips, including a decent 2-1 win at Mansfield and a 2-0 victory at Doncaster. But they don't score loads – just one goal per game on their travels – and they've been held goalless a couple of times. Their defence is reasonably tight, conceding just one per game away, but they're coming up against a Northampton side that loves a goal at home.

When these two have met, it's been close. The last four meetings have seen a win each and two draws, with both teams scoring in three of those games. The last two finishes? Both 1-1. It's a proper mid-table scrap where there's often not much between them.

Digging into the numbers, Stockport like to have the ball (53% possession away) and have more shots (nearly 14 per game). Northampton are happy to be a bit more direct, but they're clinical at home. The key stat for me? Northampton have conceded in four of their last five home games. Stockport have scored in three of their last five away. Put that together, and you've got a recipe for goals at both ends.

Key Points:

Northampton are strong at home (66.67% win rate in last 6) and score an average of 1.83 goals per game there.

However, they've kept only one clean sheet in their last five home matches.

Stockport County are draw experts lately, with five in their last ten matches.

The H2H record is tight: 1 win each and 2 draws from the last 4 meetings.

Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 4 clashes between these sides.

The market odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes sit at a tempting 1.91.

So, what's the shout? The bookies have Stockport as favourites at 1.95, but their recent form doesn't scream 'banker' to me. Northampton are a decent price at 3.60 at home, but that Burton result is a big red flag. The value, in my book, lies with goals. Northampton will likely score, but their defence isn't convincing enough to keep a tidy Stockport side out. I fancy both nets to ripple.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes.