Norwich vs Oxford United Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this relegation six-pointer between two sides who've been struggling more than a one-legged man in an arse-kicking contest.

First off, the league table tells a grim story - Norwich are rock bottom with just 9 points from 15 games, while Oxford aren't much better off in 21st with 13 points. Both teams are in the mire and need points desperately, but someone's got to start climbing the ladder.

Looking at recent form, blimey, it's not pretty reading for Norwich. They've gone 10 games without a win, picking up just 2 points from 30 available. They've managed only 6 goals in that run while shipping 18. Their home form is particularly shocking - 0% home win rate and they're scoring a pathetic 0.25 goals per game at their own gaff. They haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches either. Recent results show them getting battered 4-1 by Birmingham and losing to everyone from Leicester to West Brom.

Oxford, while not exactly setting the world alight, look like world beaters compared to Norwich. They've got 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 10, including a decent 1-1 draw against high-flying Middlesbrough in their last outing. They've actually kept a couple of clean sheets and are scoring at a slightly better rate than Norwich. They picked up a valuable point against Boro and showed they can compete with the better sides in this division.

The stats don't lie - Norwich are averaging just 0.6 goals per game overall and conceding 1.8. Oxford are averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.3 against. Both teams struggle to score, but Norwich are especially toothless at home, where they've barely managed a goal all season.

Now, the bookies have Norwich as slight favorites at 2.00, which seems generous given their form, but they might be factoring in home advantage. However, when you've got a 0% home win rate and can't score goals, home advantage counts for sweet FA. Oxford are 3.96 for the win, which looks appealing given they're the better side on recent form.

The goal markets suggest a low-scoring affair, with Under 2.5 at 1.92 making perfect sense given both teams' scoring struggles. But for me, the value lies in backing Oxford to get the three points and continue Norwich's misery.

Key Points:

• Norwich haven't won a home game all season (0% home win rate)

• Oxford have shown signs of life with a draw against Middlesbrough

• Norwich have kept 0 clean sheets in their last 10 games

n- Oxford are scoring slightly more goals (0.8 vs 0.6 per game)

• The odds of 3.96 for an Oxford win look too big to ignore

Summary: This has got "away win" written all over it. Norwich are absolutely dreadful at home and can't buy a goal, while Oxford have shown they can compete and get results on their travels. At nearly 4/1, Oxford United to win represents cracking value against a side who look destined for the drop unless things change dramatically.