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Arsenal arrive at Nottingham Forest's ground carrying a strong run of form. Their last 10 matches across all competitions produced 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 21 goals scored and just 7 conceded. The last two games in particular have been emphatic: a 3–0 home win over Lille in the Champions League on 13 October and a 2–1 victory over Leeds on 10 October, in which they scored 5 and conceded 1. Their away record over 20 games tells the same story — 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, scoring 1.75 per game and conceding 0.95.
Nottingham Forest, by contrast, are on a two-game losing run. They lost 1–3 at Crystal Palace on 11 October and 0–1 at home to Coventry on 19 September. Over their last 10 matches they have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5, scoring 0.9 per game and conceding 1.2. Their home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, with 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game.
The head-to-head record is mostly historical. In the four older meetings at both venues, Arsenal won three (3–0, 3–0, 2–1) and Forest won none, but these results are over a year old and do not reflect current form. However, the most recent meeting within the last 12 months — at Nottingham Forest's ground on 17 January 2026 — ended 0–0. That draw is the single most important data point in this fixture, and it reminds us that Forest at home can shut a game down. Their home record includes 8 clean sheets in 20 games and 8 games in which they failed to score, which means they are as capable of a blank as they are of a draw.
The counter-argument is real. Forest's home record is not poor — 7 wins in 20 games, 1.4 points per game. Arsenal's away record, while strong, includes 5 draws and 3 losses. The 0–0 in January shows that this specific fixture can produce a low-scoring stalemate. Forest's xG data over 3 recent games shows they generated 2.1 xG per game while scoring only 3 actual goals, suggesting they are creating chances but not converting.
Key Points:
- Arsenal's last 10 matches: 9W 0D 1L, 21 scored, 7 conceded
- Arsenal's away record (20 games): 12W 5D 3L, 1.75 scored per game
- Forest's last 2 matches: lost both, scored 1, conceded 4
- Most recent H2H at Forest's ground (17 Jan 2026): 0–0 draw
- Forest's home record (20 games): 7W 7D 6L, 0.7 conceded per game
The evidence points firmly to Arsenal, but the 0–0 in January and Forest's home defensive record keep this from being the certainty I require. At 1.66, the price reflects a market that sees Arsenal as the clear favourite, yet the fixture's history at this ground and Forest's ability to park the bus mean I cannot honestly rate the outcome above the level I need. No Bet.