Nottingham Forest vs Wolves Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Nottingham Forest welcome Wolves to the City Ground on Tuesday night, and if the league table is anything to go by, this should be a straightforward home win. Forest are sitting 17th with 26 points, which ain't great, but Wolves are rock bottom with a measly 8 points from 25 games. That's one win all season, folks. One. You'd back your nan's walking football team to have more points than that.

Forest's form has been a mixed bag, but there are some proper decent results in there. They held the league leaders Arsenal to a 0-0 draw at home, nicked a 2-0 win away at Brentford who are flying high in 7th, and beat West Ham 2-1 on their own patch. They even stuck four past Ferencvaros in Europe. The 3-1 loss to Leeds last time out was a bump, but overall, they're competing. At home, they're a tough nut to crack, conceding just 0.75 goals per game on their own turf.

Now, Wolves. Blimey, where do you start? Their recent results make for grim reading: a 1-3 loss to Chelsea, a 0-2 defeat to Bournemouth, and a 2-0 loss at Manchester City. They did scrape a 0-0 draw with Newcastle and a 1-1 at Everton, but they've not won away in their last ten attempts on the road. They're scoring a paltry 0.75 goals per game away from home. It's hard to see where a goal, let alone a win, is coming from.

The head-to-head history throws up a curious stat: Forest have never beaten Wolves at home in the last five meetings here. But that's history. The most recent clash between these two was just back in December, and Forest won it 1-0. That tells you everything about the current gulf between them.

When you crunch the numbers, Forest are trending upwards, Wolves are trending downwards. Forest's last three games have seen them average two goals and over a point per game. Wolves' last three? A third of a goal and zero points. The momentum is all with the home side.

The bookies have Forest at 1.73 to win. That's giving them about a 58% chance. I reckon that's generous. Given the table, the form, and Wolves' travel sickness, I'd make Forest closer to a 7/10 shot. That's value in my book.

Key Points:

Forest are 18 points and 16 places above Wolves in the table.

Wolves have only one league win all season and are winless in ten away games.

Forest are solid at home, conceding under a goal a game on average.

Forest won the reverse fixture 1-0 just two months ago.

• Recent trends show Forest improving, Wolves declining sharply.

Summary: Sometimes football is simple. The worst team in the league, who can't score away, visits a side fighting for points and in decent nick. The historical hoodoo at the City Ground is the only thing giving Wolves fans hope, but current form trumps all that. Back Forest to get the job done.