Notts County vs Oxford United Prediction

Oxford United arrive at Notts County's ground on 10 October carrying a markedly stronger recent record than their hosts. In their last ten games across all competitions, the Foxes have won five, drawn three and lost two, scoring 20 goals at a rate of 2 per game. Notts County, by contrast, have managed just two wins from their last ten, with six draws and two losses, and have scored only 10 goals at 1 per game. The gap in output is stark.

The last five games tell the same story. Oxford United have won twice and drawn twice from five (losing once to Huddersfield 1–3), scoring 11 goals and conceding 6. Notts County have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, scoring just 4 and conceding 6. Oxford's 4–0 away win at Leicester and 3–0 home win over Burton Albion show a side scoring with confidence, while Notts County's only recent victory was a 2–1 EFL Trophy win over Grimsby on 22 September.

Oxford's away record over 20 games shows 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses at 1.15 points per game, scoring 1.25 per game and conceding 1.4. Notts County's home record over 20 games is 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses at 1.7 points per game, scoring 1.55 and conceding 0.95. On aggregate, Notts County's home numbers look solid, but those 20 games span from 20 December 2025 to 22 September 2026, and the last five results paint a less flattering picture for the hosts. In league play, their last home game ended in a defeat — 0–1 to Bradford on 12 September.

The head-to-head is entirely historical. The two sides last met in 2015 and 2016 in League Two, with Oxford winning both times (3–1 at Oxford's ground and 4–2 at Notts County's ground). There are no meetings within the last 12 months, so this fixture offers no recent pattern to lean on.

The counter-argument for Notts County is their home record. Ten wins from 20 home games is a respectable return, and they did pick up a win in their most recent outing. However, that win came in the EFL Trophy against Grimsby, and their scoring output in the last five games — 0.8 per game — is the lowest figure in this preview. They have failed to score in two of those five and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them.

Key Points:

• Oxford United have won 5 of their last 10 games, scoring 2 per game; Notts County have won 2 of 10, scoring 1 per game.

• Oxford's last 5 games produced 11 goals for and 6 against; Notts County's last 5 produced 4 for and 6 against.

• Notts County's home record (10W 4D 6L in 20) looks strong on aggregate, but their last home league game was a 0–1 defeat to Bradford.

• The head-to-head is 10 years old and offers no current-form guidance.

• Oxford's recent away form includes a 4–0 win at Leicester and a 2–2 draw at Exeter City.

I'm backing the underdog here — Oxford United to win at 2.67. The form gap is clear, the scoring output tells the story, and the market is pricing this as a near-even contest when the evidence points to the Foxes being the stronger side on the day.