Notts County vs Oxford United Prediction

Right, so we've got Notts County hosting Oxford United on 10 October, and if I'm being straight with you, Oxford United are the ones I'd be backing if I had a fiver on the line.

Oxford United have been absolutely flying. Look at their last five: two wins, two draws, one loss, and they've scored 11 goals in that stretch — 2.2 a game. That's not just numbers, that's a team with a bit of fire in them. They went to Leicester and put four past them, then came home and thrashed Burton 3-0. Yes, they've drawn their last two (2-2 at Exeter in the Trophy, 1-1 at home to Cambridge), but the form is there. Over their last 10 games, they've won 5, drawn 3, lost 2, and scored 20 goals. That's a side that's clicking.

Now, Notts County. I'll give them credit — they got the job done at home against Grimsby in the Trophy two weeks ago, 2-1. But before that? A 0-1 loss at home to Bradford, a 0-2 defeat at Reading, and two 1-1 draws on the road. Four goals scored in five games. That's not a lot. They've not kept a clean sheet in their last five, and they've failed to score in two of those. The home record over 20 games looks tidy — 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, 1.7 points a game — but the last few home outings haven't been pretty.

The head-to-head here is... well, it's 10 years old. Two meetings in 2015 and 2016, both won by Oxford, both went over 2.5, both saw both teams score. So it's dated, and I'd rather lean on what's happening now than what happened a decade ago.

The counter-argument for Notts County is their home record. Over 20 home games, they've won 10, scored 1.55 a game, and conceded just 0.95. That's a solid base. And they did get the win against Grimsby recently. But form is form, and Oxford United are in a different gear. Oxford's away record over 20 games is 6W 5D 9L with 1.25 scored per game, which isn't brilliant, but their recent away form — that 4-0 at Leicester — tells you they're dangerous on the road right now.

Key Points:

• Oxford United have scored 11 goals in their last 5 games (2.2 per game) and won 5 of their last 10

• Notts County have scored just 4 goals in their last 5 and lost 2 of those 5

• Oxford's away record over 20 games: 6W 5D 9L, 1.25 scored per game

• Notts County's home record over 20 games: 10W 4D 6L, 1.55 scored per game

• The head-to-head is entirely historical (2015-2016), so current form is the real story

My call: Oxford United away win at 2.67.