There's something quietly heartening about Notts County's home numbers. Across their last 20 games at home, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, averaging 1.8 points per game and scoring 1.85 goals per match while conceding just 1.05. That's a side that, on the numbers, should be a tough nut to crack at their ground.
And here's the wrinkle that makes this one a little puppy's story: Sheffield Wednesday's away record over the last 20 games is 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses. They average 0.8 points per game on the road, score 0.7 goals per game and concede 1.8. That's a side that struggles mightily away from home.
So statistically, the little guy at home against a travelling side that loses 12 of 20 away games? That's the kind of mismatch I love to sniff out.
But โ and this is a big but โ form is a different story. Sheffield Wednesday have won 6 of their last 10 across all competitions, drawing 3 and losing just 1. They average 2.1 points per game over that stretch, scoring 2.2 per game and conceding only 0.9. Three of their last five were clean sheets, and they came into this fixture with a 5โ0 win over AFC Wimbledon on 17 October. Their xG numbers over the last three games with data tell a similar story: 2.84 expected goals per game for, against just 1.22 against.
Notts County, by contrast, have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 in their last five. They lost 0โ2 at Wycombe on 17 October and 1โ2 to Oxford United at home on 10 October. Their xG for over the last four games with data sits at 1.07 per game, and they failed to score in two of those five. The 5โ1 win over Nottingham Forest U21 in the EFL Trophy on 13 October was a bright spot, but it's a different competition.
The head-to-head here is dated โ the last two meetings between these sides came in 2012 and 2014, and both ended in Sheffield Wednesday victories. With no meetings within the last 12 months, that record doesn't really tell us anything about how this fixture will play out today.
The counter-argument to the underdog case is straightforward: Wednesday's recent form is genuinely strong, and Notts County's last five games include three losses. The 11 wins in 20 home games are a solid foundation, but the last five games suggest the side is not at its peak right now.
Key Points:
- Notts County's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.8 PPG, 1.85 goals scored per game
- Sheffield Wednesday's away record: 4W 4D 12L in 20 games, 0.8 PPG, 0.7 goals scored per game
- Wednesday's recent form: 6W 3D 1L in last 10, 2.1 PPG, 2.2 goals scored per game
- Notts County's recent form: 2W 0D 3L in last 5, lost last 1
- Head-to-head is historical (2012 and 2014), with no meetings in the last 12 months
The home record numbers are encouraging for the little guy, but the last five games tell a different story, and I can't honestly rate Notts County's chances of winning above the level the market is pricing them at. And I'm not about to back the favourite when the underdog isn't giving me a clear edge. No Bet it is โ sometimes the kindest thing for the little puppy is to let them rest and wait for a better opportunity. ๐พ
