Novara vs Cittadella Prediction

Right, so we've got Novara hosting Cittadella on 10 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Cittadella are flying. Four wins from their last five, 20 goals scored in their last ten, and they haven't failed to score in a single one of those recent games. Their away record over the last 20 outings is 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with 1.9 points per game and just 0.85 conceded per match. That's a side that travels well, keeps things tight at the back, and finds the net consistently. In their last five, they've scored 9 and conceded just 3. The only blemish is that 1-2 home loss to Albinoleffe seven days ago, but one bad afternoon doesn't undo a run like that.

Novara, on the other hand, are having a tough time. One win, two draws and two losses from their last five, and they've failed to score in three of those five. At home over 20 games, their record is 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses — a lot of goalless grinds and stalemates. Their last three home games have been a 0-2 loss to Ospitaletto, a 2-2 draw with Athletic Carpi, and a 0-1 loss to Pergolettese. The 2-1 away win at Dolomiti Bellunesi six days ago is a small lift, but the home form is worrying.

The head-to-head at this venue adds to the picture. In the only recent meeting here in April 2026, Cittadella won 1-0. The reverse fixture at Cittadella's ground was a 2-2 draw. So the last two times these two have met, Cittadella haven't lost, and the one at this ground went their way. The older meetings go back to 2017, 2018 and 2020, so they're historical rather than a guide to current form.

Now, the counter-argument: Novara's home draw habit. Nine draws from 20 home games is a pattern that keeps the draw alive, and the market prices it at 30.77%. If Novara hold firm and Cittadella can't break them down, a 0-0 or 1-1 is a real possibility. But looking at Cittadella's scoring record — 2 goals per game in their last ten, and they've scored in every one of their last five — I don't think they're the type to sit there and wait for a draw.

Key Points:

• Cittadella: 4W 0D 1L in last 5, 8W 1D 1L in last 10, 20 goals scored in that stretch

• Novara: 1W 2D 2L in last 5, failed to score in 3 of 5, home record 5W 9D 6L

• H2H at this venue (recent): Cittadella won 1-0 in April 2026

• Cittadella's away record: 12W 2D 6L in 20 games, 0.85 conceded per game

• Novara's last three home games: 0-2 loss, 2-2 draw, 0-1 loss

My verdict: Cittadella away win at 2.42. The form, the away record, the head-to-head at this ground, and Novara's inability to score at home all point the same way. The market's 41.32% implied probability undersells what I see in the numbers, and I rate Cittadella's chance of winning here at roughly 48%. That's value worth a stake.