Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta Prediction

Must see, you, the truth of this fixture. Novorizontino stand firm at home, two wins in a row, five goals scored, zero conceded. The force is with them, and the force is strong. Their home record over 20 games tells a story of consistency: ten wins, five draws, five losses, with six clean sheets and 1.45 goals per game. Their xG numbers from recent matches show 2.55 expected goals for and 0.64 against. The numbers, they align with the results, you see?

Ponte Preta, they come to this ground with a heavy heart. Three losses in a row, not a single goal scored, six conceded. Their away record over 20 games is a tale of struggle: one win, zero draws, nineteen losses. In sixteen of those twenty away trips, they failed to find the net. Their xG for is a mere 0.48 per game. The silence of their attack is loud, I tell you. In nine of their last ten matches, they did not score. In four of their last five, the same quiet.

The head-to-head, it speaks of a recent meeting in June, at Ponte Preta's own ground, where Novorizontino won 2–0. The older meetings stretch back years, and in fourteen of those sixteen meetings, the total was two or fewer goals. The goals, they do not flow easily between these two sides.

The counter-argument, it must be heard. Novorizontino are not without their quiet moments. A 0–0 draw at home against São Bernardo on 25 September, a 1–1 with Cuiaba on 13 September. They are not a team that always scores. And Ponte Preta did win 1–0 at home against CRB on 20 September. The spark, it flickers. But three losses since, with zero goals, that spark has gone cold.

The market prices Novorizontino's win at 1.08, a near certainty. But the deeper question here is not who wins — it is whether Ponte Preta find the net at all. The evidence, it is overwhelming. Nine of ten, they have not scored. Away, sixteen of twenty. Their expected goals, a fraction of a goal per game. Novorizontino's defence, two clean sheets in a row, meets a side that has forgotten how to break through. I rate the chance of at least one team failing to score well above the 64.52% the market implies for both teams not to score. The football, it speaks clearly.

Key Points:

• Ponte Preta have failed to score in 9 of their last 10 matches and 16 of their last 20 away games

• Novorizontino have won their last 2 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 0

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (22 June 2026) ended 0–2, with Ponte Preta failing to score

• Ponte Preta's away record over 20 games: 1W 0D 19L, 0.35 goals per game

• Novorizontino's home record: 10W 5D 5L, 6 clean sheets in 20 games

Both teams not to score.