Preview
Mr CertaintyNovorizontino enter this Serie B fixture at their ground on 12 October in strong form, having won their last two matches and collected 7 wins from their last 10. Their home record over 20 games tells a consistent story: 10 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses, with 1.45 goals scored per game and 0.95 conceded. The most recent home result was a 3–0 victory over Goias on 2 October, and their most recent match overall was a 2–0 away win at Nautico Recife on 8 October. The current run of two wins has seen them score 5 goals and concede nothing.
Ponte Preta, by contrast, are in the opposite state. Their last three matches have all ended in defeat, and they have scored zero goals across those three games while conceding 6. The sequence is stark: a 0–2 home loss to Juventude on 7 October, a 0–2 away loss at Cuiaba on 3 October (with a red card in the 71st minute), and a 0–2 away loss at Botafogo SP on 29 September. Stretching back to their last 10 matches, Ponte Preta have won just once, scored a single goal in total, and failed to score in 9 of those 10. Their away record over 20 games is 1 win, 0 draws, 19 losses, with 0.35 goals scored per game and 16 of those 20 matches ending without them finding the net.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There have been no meetings at Novorizontino's ground within the last 12 months. The one recent meeting, on 22 June at Ponte Preta's ground, ended 0–2 to Novorizontino. The older meetings at both venues are historical record and do not carry weight for current form.
The case against the pick is straightforward. Novorizontino's home record shows that in 11 of their 20 home games, both teams have scored. Ponte Preta's away defensive record is poor, with 2.45 goals conceded per game over 20 away matches. There is a genuine risk that Novorizontino's attack, averaging 2.2 goals per game over the last 10, will find the net and that Ponte Preta's defence, already leaking goals, will concede. However, the question for this market is whether Ponte Preta score, and the evidence on that is overwhelming in the negative.
Key Points:
- Novorizontino have won their last 2 and 7 of their last 10, with a solid 10W 5D 5L home record over 20 games.
- Ponte Preta have scored 0 goals in their last 3 matches and just 1 goal in their last 10.
- Ponte Preta's away record: 1W 0D 19L in 20 games, failing to score in 16 of those 20.
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (22 June) saw Novorizontino win 2–0 at Ponte Preta's ground.
- Ponte Preta's xG for over 4 recent games is 0.48 per game, with 0 actual goals on those same games.
My verdict: both teams not to score.