Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Novorizontino at home against Ponte Preta on 12 October, and if you've been following the form, this one looks like it's going to be a bit of a one-sided evening. Let's get into it.
Novorizontino are flying. They've won their last two — a 2–0 away at Nautico Recife on 8 October and a 3–0 at home to Goias on 2 October — and in those two games they've scored five and conceded nothing. That's the sort of run that makes you feel the back four are locked in and the front end is clicking. Over their last 10 matches, they've won 7, drawn 2 and lost just 1, scoring 2.2 a game and conceding 0.7. At home over 20 games, the record is 10 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses, with 1.45 goals a game and 0.95 conceded. They're not perfect — they drew 0–0 with São Bernardo on 25 September and 1–1 with Cuiaba on 13 September — but the momentum is clearly with them.
Now, Ponte Preta. Oh, Ponte Preta. They've lost their last three — 0–2 at home to Juventude on 7 October, 0–2 away at Cuiaba on 3 October (with a red card in the 71st minute), and 0–2 away at Botafogo SP on 29 September. In those three games they've scored zero and conceded six. Over their last 10, they've won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9, scoring 0.1 a game. And their away record over 20 games? One win, zero draws, 19 losses. They've failed to score in 16 of those 20 away games. That is not a team that's finding the back of the net on the road. Their xG for over four recent matches sits at 0.48 a game, which tells you the chances just aren't there.
The head-to-head is mostly historical — four older meetings stretching back to 2024 — but the one recent meeting, back in June 2026 at Ponte Preta's ground, ended 0–2 to Novorizontino. So the most recent time these two met, the visitors came away with a clean sheet and two goals. That's a useful data point.
The counter-argument? Well, Novorizontino did lose 1–2 at Ceara on 18 September, and they've drawn two of their last five. Ponte Preta did pick up a 1–0 win at home against CRB on 20 September, so they're not completely without a spark. And the head-to-head at this specific venue — Novorizontino's ground — has no recent meetings, so we're flying a bit blind on how this particular fixture plays out. But honestly, when your opponent has scored zero in their last three and has won just one of 20 away games, the counter-argument is pretty thin.
Key Points:
- Ponte Preta have scored zero in their last three matches and just one goal in their last ten
- Ponte Preta's away record over 20 games: 1 win, 0 draws, 19 losses
- Novorizontino won their last two, scoring 5 and conceding 0
- The recent head-to-head (June 2026) ended 0–2 to Novorizontino
- Ponte Preta have failed to score in 16 of their last 20 away games
My pick: both teams not to score. Ponte Preta's scoring drought is the story here, and with them having found the net just once in ten games and not at all in the last three, the odds of them putting one past Novorizontino's defence are slim. The 1.55 price on both teams not to score reflects the market's view, but the football evidence points to an even higher likelihood that at least one side — almost certainly Ponte Preta — finishes with zero on the board.