Oldham vs Accrington ST Prediction

Oldham have been in genuine trouble of late, and their last five matches paint a picture of a team struggling to find any rhythm. One win, no draws, four losses — with just three goals scored and ten conceded across the stretch. The most recent outing was a 1–4 home defeat to Salford City on 26 September, and before that they lost 1–2 to Chesterfield at home and 0–2 at both Rochdale and Tranmere. Their current run is a loss, and the form is undeniably poor. A team that has only managed a clean sheet in one of those five games and failed to score in two is not the side you'd expect to be comfortable at home.

Accrington ST, by contrast, have kept their heads above water and their unbeaten run alive. Their last five matches produced one win and four draws with no defeats. They beat Cheltenham 2–0 on 3 October, drew 1–1 at Swindon, and shared points in a 3–3 EFL Trophy encounter with Sunderland U21. Their scoring output of 1.4 goals per game over that stretch compares with Oldham's 0.6, and they have conceded just one goal per game. In their latest ten matches, Accrington ST have collected 1.1 points per game, edging ahead of Oldham's 1.0. The little puppies have been quietly keeping their tails wagging while the big dogs chase their own tails.

The head-to-head at this venue is a single recent meeting: Oldham won 3–0 on 2 May 2026. That is the only meeting at Oldham's ground within the last 12 months. The reverse fixture at Accrington ST's ground saw them win 1–0 in November 2025. Older meetings at Oldham's ground — a 0–0 draw in 2021 and a 0–3 loss in 2019 — are historical and do not reflect current form.

The counter-argument for Oldham is their home record over 20 games: 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, scoring 1.55 per game and conceding 0.95. That is a solid record, and the 3–0 result in the most recent meeting at this ground suggests they can handle Accrington ST on their own turf. Accrington ST's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses, with 1 goal scored per game and 1.35 conceded. That is a weak away profile, and it's the main reason the market prices Oldham as the clear favourite at 1.62.

But here's the thing: form is form, and Oldham's last five are ugly. A 1–4 home loss two weeks ago is not the kind of result that builds confidence. Accrington ST have not lost in five, and their defensive record in that stretch — conceding just five goals — is the tightest they've shown recently. The gap between the two teams' recent outputs is real, and the 5.25 price on an Accrington ST win is where the value hides for those of us who like to back the overlooked.

Key Points:

• Oldham have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 3 goals and conceding 10

• Accrington ST are unbeaten in their last 5 (1W 4D 0L), scoring 1.4 per game

• The only recent meeting at Oldham's ground ended 3–0 to Oldham (2 May 2026)

• Oldham's 20-game home record: 11W 3D 6L; Accrington ST's 20-game away record: 5W 4D 11L

• Accrington ST's latest 10 PPG (1.1) edges Oldham's (1.0)

I'm backing the little puppies here — Accrington ST away win at 5.25.