Oldham vs Accrington ST Prediction

Look, I'll be upfront with you - this Oldham versus Accrington ST fixture has me a bit torn, and I'm not gonna pretend it's a clear-cut one. League Two on a morning kick-off, and the numbers are pointing one way while the recent form is pointing another.

Start with what's in Oldham's favour. Their home record over the last 20 games is respectable: 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, 1.8 points per game. They average 1.55 goals scored per game at home and concede 0.95, with 10 clean sheets in those 20. And when they hosted Accrington ST back on 2 May, they won 3-0. The head-to-head at this ground in recent times sits in Oldham's pocket.

But here's where it gets tricky, and I don't like to sugarcoat things. Oldham's last five games have been a mess. One win, four losses. They lost 1-4 to Salford City at home on 26 September, lost 1-2 to Chesterfield at home on 12 September, and got beaten 0-2 away at both Rochdale and Tranmere. Points per game over that stretch is 0.6, and they've scored just 3 goals in five games. That is not the side that put three past Accrington ST in May.

Now flip it around. Accrington ST haven't lost in their last five. One win, four draws, 1.4 points per game. They beat Cheltenham 2-0 at home on 3 October, drew 1-1 away at Swindon on 26 September, and got a 3-3 draw with Sunderland U21 at home. They're not flying, but they're not falling apart. The problem is their away record over 20 games: 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses. That's 0.95 points per game, scoring just 1 per game on the road while conceding 1.35. That's a struggling away record, no doubt about it.

So you've got a home side with a strong venue record but terrible recent form, and an away side with a poor venue record but no recent defeats. It's a genuine puzzle, and I'll tell you that's the kind of match that keeps you up at night with a cold one in your hand.

The one thread that keeps pulling me back is the scoring. Oldham's last five games: three of them finished under 2.5 goals. Accrington ST's last five: four of them finished under 2.5. That's seven out of ten recent games involving these two sides that stayed under the line. Accrington ST's away record over 20 games has 11 under 2.5, and Oldham's home record has 10 under 2.5. The head-to-head at this ground in May was 3-0, which is over, but the other recent meeting at Accrington's ground was 1-0 - under.

The market is pricing under 2.5 at 2.1, which implies about 47.6% chance. My read on the evidence - two teams whose recent games are consistently low-scoring, an away side that scores just 1 per game on the road, and a home side that's been kept to 1 or 0 goals in most of their last five - puts the under at around 52%. That's a nudge above the market's view, and it's the one angle I can back with a bit of conviction.

Key Points:

• Oldham's home record is strong (11W 3D 6L in 20) but their last five games are 1W 4L

• Accrington ST haven't lost in five but their away record is 5W 4D 11L in 20

• Seven of the last ten games involving these two sides finished under 2.5 goals

• The head-to-head at Oldham's ground on 2 May ended 3-0 to Oldham

• Accrington ST's away record leans under 2.5 (11 of 20), while Oldham's home record is evenly split (10 over, 10 under)

My pick: under 2.5 goals.