Oldham vs Accrington ST Prediction

Right, so Oldham are hosting Accrington ST at their ground on 10 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a story to tell.

Let's start with what the venue record says. Oldham at home over their last 20 games have won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, scoring 1.55 a game and conceding just 0.95. That's a solid home record. Accrington ST on the other hand, over their last 20 away games, have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 11, scoring 1 a game and conceding 1.35. The numbers make it clear: Oldham at home are the stronger side, scoring more and keeping more clean sheets than their visitors.

And the head-to-head at this ground? Well, back in May 2026, Oldham put 3 past Accrington ST in a 3-0 win. The other recent meeting, at Accrington's ground in November 2025, was a 1-0 win for the hosts. So both of the last two meetings between these sides have been one-sided, with one team failing to score entirely. That's a pattern that's hard to ignore.

Now, the counter-argument. Oldham's recent form is, to put it mildly, not great. Four losses in their last five, including a 4-1 home defeat to Salford City and 0-2 losses at Rochdale and Tranmere. They've conceded 10 goals in those five games. That's a lot of holes to plug. Accrington ST, on the flip side, haven't lost in their last five — one win and four draws — and they've kept things fairly tidy, conceding just 5 in that stretch. So you've got a home side with a strong venue record but a leaky recent run, facing an away side that's been unbeaten but not exactly setting the world alight.

The market prices Oldham's win at 1.62, which suggests they're the favourites, and I'd agree the home record and head-to-head point that way. But the recent form makes it harder to back them at that price with full conviction. What does stand out, though, is the scoring pattern. At Oldham's ground, 12 of the last 20 games have seen at least one team fail to score. At Accrington ST's away record, it's the same: 12 of 20. And the head-to-head? The two recent meetings were 3-0 and 1-0, both one-sided. That's a consistent thread running through the numbers.

Key Points:

• Oldham's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.55 scored, 0.95 conceded

• Accrington ST away: 5W 4D 11L in 20 games, 1 scored, 1.35 conceded

• Both recent H2H meetings were one-sided: 3-0 and 1-0

• Oldham have lost 4 of their last 5; Accrington ST are unbeaten in 5

• 12 of 20 games at each venue have seen at least one team fail to score

I'm going with both teams not to score. The venue records and head-to-head tell a consistent story of one-sided affairs, and the price at 2.0 offers a decent nudge against the market's 50% view.