Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this League Two clash. Oldham at home to Cheltenham – it's a mid-table tussle, but one where the home side look to have a fair bit going for 'em.
First off, the table. Oldham sit 15th with 32 points, Cheltenham are 18th with 30. Not much in it points-wise, but have a butcher's at the goal difference. Oldham are +5, Cheltenham are a whopping -16. That tells you a story straight away, doesn't it? One side can defend a bit, the other's got a sieve for a backline.
Now, let's talk recent results. Oldham are the definition of solid. In their last ten, they've only lost three. More importantly, look at who they've played. They went to Walsall – who are third, mind you – and won 2-1. That's a proper result. At home, they smashed Tranmere 3-1 and Newport County 3-0. Their last two were draws: 0-0 with a decent Notts County side and 1-1 with Chesterfield. They're tough to break down, especially at Boundary Park where they've only lost once in their last five, conceding a miserly 0.6 goals per game.
Cheltenham, on the other hand, are a bit all over the shop. Their last ten reads five wins, which sounds good, but you have to look at the opposition. They beat strugglers like Crawley (3-0) and Shrewsbury (3-1), but then they got absolutely tonked 4-1 away at Crewe and lost 2-0 at home to Swindon Town. When they face sides with a bit about them, they often come up short. Away from home, they score about one a game but let in more.
The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're an Oldham fan. They've won three of the last seven meetings, losing just two. More importantly, at home, they've never lost to Cheltenham in the data we've got (two wins, one draw). The last time they met back in September, Oldham won 3-0. That's recent history, and it matters.
So, what's gonna happen? Oldham are strong at the back at home. Cheltenham can score on their day but are prone to a proper hiding. The stats say Oldham create more chances at home and are more accurate with their shots. Cheltenham might have more of the ball, but what are they doing with it?
Key Points:
Oldham are rock solid at home, conceding just 0.6 goals per game in their last five.
Cheltenham have a terrible goal difference (-16) and have been battered on the road this season (4-1 at Crewe).
The head-to-head is firmly in Oldham's favour, especially at home, including a 3-0 win earlier this season.
Oldham's recent form includes a brilliant away win at high-flying Walsall.
- Cheltenham's wins have largely come against the division's strugglers.
All in all, this sets up nicely for the Latics. They're the more reliable side, they've got the historical edge, and they're playing at their place where they keep things tight. I can see a 1-0 or 2-0 win for the home side. The odds of 1.70 for a home win look fair enough to me, so that's where my money's going.
