OLS vs Tampere United Prediction

Right, so we've got OLS hosting Tampere United in the Ykkönen on 10 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a nice little story to it.

OLS have been in proper form of late. They've won their last two — a 3-0 at home to PKKU and a 3-1 away at JJK — and in those two games they've scored six and conceded just one. That's the sort of run that gets you thinking about what's coming next. And looking at their home record over the last 20 games, 12 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, with 2.35 goals a game and 1.35 conceded, this is a side that knows how to get it done at home. They've also won the most recent head-to-head here, 2-1 back in August, so the pattern is there. OLS haven't failed to score in any of their last 10 games, which tells you the front end is clicking.

Tampere United, though, aren't a team you can write off. They've scored 16 goals in their last five games — that's 3.2 a game — and they've won three of those five. The 4-0 over JJK two weeks ago was a statement, and the 3-2 win over PKKU at home showed they can grind out results in tight games. Their away record over 20 games is 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, so they've got the legs to travel. The problem is, their most recent away outing was a 4-6 loss to SalPa, and they lost the last time they visited OLS's ground. Their away defence is leaking 1.45 a game, which is a lot when you're facing a side scoring 2.35 at home.

Now, the market's actually got Tampere United as the slight favourite at 2.25, with OLS at 2.52. That's a bit odd when you look at the numbers. OLS at home are scoring more, conceding less, and have the recent head-to-head in the bag. The goal count in this fixture is likely to be up there — OLS's home games have gone over 2.5 in 18 of 20, and Tampere United's away games have gone over 2.5 in 11 of 20. Both teams' recent games have been high-scoring, so expect goals. But the question is who's putting them on the board, and the evidence points to OLS.

Key Points:

• OLS have won their last two games, scoring 6 and conceding 1

• OLS beat Tampere United 2-1 at this ground in August

• OLS's home record: 12W 3D 5L in 20 games, 2.35 goals per game, 1.35 conceded

• Tampere United's away record: 10W 4D 6L in 20 games, 1.45 conceded per game

• 4 of OLS's last 5 and all 5 of Tampere United's last 5 went over 2.5

So here's my take: OLS at home, in form, with the recent head-to-head in the bag, against a Tampere United side that's been leaking goals on the road. I'm going with the OLS home win at 2.52.