OLS vs Tampere United Prediction

Round off the Ykkönen season with a real scrap between OLS and Tampere United, and Mr Simple’s advice is to keep your money in your pocket.

Tampere United top the table on 44 points and have been busy scoring 22 goals in their last 10 games while conceding just 10. Their away record over the last five is 60% wins, 40% draws and no losses, with 1.8 goals scored per match and only 1.2 conceded. They also cleaned up in half of their last 10, and their last five results include wins over Rops 4-0, KPV-j 6-0, VJS 1-0 and FC jazz 1-0.

OLS sit sixth on 31 points, but their recent run has been patchy. In their last 10 they managed just two wins, four draws and four losses, scoring 18 and conceding 24. They have not kept a clean sheet in that stretch, and their last five home games are a mixed bag: 40% wins, 40% draws and 20% losses. At home they average 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, but away they are struggling with 0% wins, 40% draws and 60% losses.

The head-to-head is a real tug-of-war. The two sides have met six times, with OLS winning two, Tampere United winning two and two draws. The last meeting was on 11 June, when Tampere United came out on top 3-0. OLS have a 50% home win record against them, but that is not enough to make this a safe pick.

Goals look like the main story. OLS average 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, while Tampere United average 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. The market’s fair chance for Over 2.5 is around 67%, with the odds at 1.44. That means the book is pricing a high-scoring game, but the edge over the fair number is not big enough for Mr Simple’s value rule. Both Teams to Score looks tempting at 1.40, but the fair chance is about 67%, so again the edge is too small.

Tampere United’s form and league position point one way, but OLS’s home record, the close head-to-head, and the short odds on goals leave Mr Simple wanting more. The best thing to do is watch the match, enjoy the goals, and keep your bets off.

Key Points:

• Tampere United lead the Ykkönen table on 44 points and average 2.2 goals scored per game.

• OLS are sixth on 31 points, with just two wins, four draws and four losses in their last 10.

• The head-to-head is dead even: two wins each and two draws in six meetings.

• Over 2.5 is priced at 1.44, but the edge over the fair probability is not large enough.

• Mr Simple’s verdict: No Bet.