Omiya Ardija vs Vanraure Hachinohe Prediction

Right, so we've got Omiya Ardija hosting Vanraure Hachinohe in the J2 League, and let me tell you, this one smells like a home win the way a bra smells on a Saturday afternoon. Omiya's home record over the last 20 games is 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses, with 2.1 goals scored per game and just 1.2 conceded. That's a side that comes to work at home, and two weeks ago they put 5 past Ventforet Kofu in front of their own crowd. The Emperor Cup meeting six weeks ago at this very ground ended 2-0 to Omiya, and if you look at the full head-to-head across five meetings, Omiya have won four, drawn one and lost none. Vanraure haven't got a win in this fixture in the bag.

Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play. Omiya's last five games read 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses. Two of those were 0-0 draws, and their most recent outing was a 1-1 at Tegevajaro Miyazaki. So the 5-1 hammering is real, but the surrounding form is a bit of a draw-fest. Vanraure did pick up a 2-1 away win at Jubilo Iwata two weeks ago, so they're not completely dead. And Omiya's home record spans 12 months, meaning some of those 11 wins are older and dilute the current picture a little.

But here's where it gets uncomfortable for the visitors. Vanraure's last five is 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, and they've failed to score in four of those five. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've scored just 0.3 per game and conceded 1.8. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses with 0.95 goals scored per game. All three of their home games in the last five were losses, and they've only managed one clean sheet in their last five. The numbers don't lie, my friend — this is a side that's struggling to put the ball in the net, let alone keep it out of their own.

Key Points:

• Omiya Ardija's home record: 11W 2D 7L in 20 games, 2.1 scored per game

• Vanraure Hachinohe failed to score in 4 of their last 5 and 8 of their last 10

• Head-to-head: Omiya won the recent meeting 2-0 at this ground; 4W 1D 0L overall

• Omiya's last 5 is 1W 4D 0L, with two 0-0 draws muddying the picture

• Vanraure's last 10: 2W 1D 7L, 0.7 points per game, 0.3 scored per game

The available prices could not be used for a recommendation, so this one's a No Bet from me. But if you were watching this, you'd be leaning on the sofa with your beer, expecting Omiya to get it done.