Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so One Knoxville are at home to Spokane Velocity on 11 October, and if you've been following this fixture, you'll know the story is pretty one-sided. In the last 12 months, One Knoxville have won both meetings — 2–0 at their own ground back in November and a thumping 4–0 on the road in June. And if you go back further, they've not lost to Spokane Velocity in any of their six meetings. Three wins, three draws, and not a single victory for the visitors. That's a record that doesn't lie.
Add in One Knoxville's home numbers over 20 games and the picture gets even clearer. Ten wins, six draws, four losses, and they've kept a clean sheet in 9 of those 20. Their defence at home is averaging just 0.8 goals conceded per game, which is about as solid as it comes. Spokane Velocity, on the other hand, have only won 7 of their last 20 away games, and they're conceding 1.65 per game on the road. That's a big gap when you're facing a side that's been so steady at the back at home.
Now, I'll give Spokane Velocity their due. They've been in decent shape of late — four wins, four draws and two losses in their last 10, and they've won their last two away games, both 1–0. They haven't failed to score in any of their last five matches, so they're not the sort of side that just turn up and sulk. The 3–3 draw with Portland Hearts of Pine seven days ago showed they've got the firepower to be dangerous. And if you look at the last 10 games for both sides, Spokane Velocity actually edge it on points per game — 1.6 to 1.4. So they're not walking into this as a team in the doldrums.
But here's the thing. One Knoxville's last 10 has five draws, which tells you they can be a bit inconsistent, but they've also won their last game — a 3–0 home win over Chattanooga Red Wolves four days ago. And the head-to-head at this specific ground tells you that when it comes down to this fixture, One Knoxville have got the edge. They've won the meeting at this ground in the last 12 months. Spokane Velocity haven't won at this ground in any of the meetings on record.
Key Points:
- One Knoxville have won both recent head-to-head meetings (2–0 at home, 4–0 away) and haven't lost to Spokane Velocity in six meetings.
- One Knoxville's home record: 10W 6D 4L over 20 games, with 9 clean sheets and 0.8 goals conceded per game.
- Spokane Velocity's away record: 7W 5D 8L over 20 games, conceding 1.65 per game.
- Spokane Velocity have won their last two away games (both 1–0) and haven't failed to score in their last five.
- One Knoxville won their last game 3–0 at home, but have drawn 5 of their last 10.
So here's my take. The numbers at this ground, the head-to-head, and One Knoxville's home defence all point to the hosts getting the win. The market has One Knoxville at 1.89, which prices them at about 53%. I'd put their chances a touch higher than that, around 55%, given the dominance in this fixture and the solid home record. That's a small but real edge, and it's the kind of value I like to back. My tip: One Knoxville home win.