Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you – when I sat down with my beer to look at this one, the numbers just screamed at me. Çorum FK at home against Rizespor on the road? That's a tough ask for the visitors, bra, and the evidence backs it up loud and clear.
Çorum FK have been absolutely cooking at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 13, drawn 2 and lost 5, racking up 2.05 points per game. They score 1.75 per game at home and concede just 0.95, with 8 clean sheets in that stretch. And their recent form? Three wins in their last five, scoring 14 goals in the process – that's 2.8 a game. They beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 just five days ago on 11 October, and before that they put five past Samsunspor on 12 September. The blemishes were a 1-2 loss to Alanyaspor on 19 September and a 2-6 loss to Beşiktaş on 31 August, but the overall picture is strong. Their current run is a win, and they haven't failed to score in any of their last five matches.
Now look at Rizespor on the road. Over 20 away games, they've won just 5, drawn 7 and lost 8. That's 1.1 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.6. And their last outing? A 0-3 home defeat to Fenerbahçe on 10 October, six days before this kickoff. They've failed to score in two of their last five matches, and their overall scoring in that stretch is just 1.2 per game. Their current run is a loss, and they haven't kept a clean sheet since that 2-0 away win at Eyüpspor four weeks ago.
The matchup table tells the story even more clearly. Çorum FK at home: 13 wins, 2.05 ppg, 1.75 scored, 0.95 conceded. Rizespor away: 5 wins, 1.1 ppg, 1.25 scored, 1.6 conceded. In the key columns – wins, points per game, goals scored, goals conceded, clean sheets and failed to score – the home side is ahead. Çorum FK have kept 8 clean sheets in 20 home games; Rizespor have managed just 4 in 20 away. Çorum FK have failed to score in 3 of 20 home games; Rizespor have failed to score in 6 of 20 away.
Now, I'll give Rizespor their due. They've won two of their last five, and they did pick up 2-0 away at Eyüpspor on 12 September. There's no head-to-head history between these two sides to lean on, so current form and venue records carry all the weight here. But a 0-3 loss to Fenerbahçe six days ago doesn't exactly inspire confidence, and an away record of 5 wins in 20 games is simply not good enough against a side that's won 13 of their last 20 at home. Mama, the numbers don't lie.
Key Points:
- Çorum FK have won 13 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.75 per game and conceding 0.95
- Rizespor have won just 5 of their last 20 away games, conceding 1.6 per game
- Çorum FK scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 per game); Rizespor scored just 6 (1.2 per game)
- Rizespor lost 0-3 to Fenerbahçe on 10 October, six days before this fixture
- No head-to-head meetings on record, so current form and venue records carry the weight
My pick: Çorum FK home win at 2.13.