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Çorum FK have been in red-hot form heading into this one, winning three of their last five matches and scoring 2.8 goals per game across that stretch. Their home record over the last 20 games tells the same story: 13 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, with 1.75 goals scored per game and just 0.95 conceded. They have kept a clean sheet in 8 of those 20 fixtures, and they have not failed to score in any of their last five matches.
The most recent evidence is compelling. Five days before kickoff, Çorum FK dismantled Gaziantep FK 3–0 on the road, and before that they had beaten Samsunspor 5–1 away and Eyüpspor 3–0 at home. Their blemishes in that run were a 1–2 home defeat to Alanyaspor on 19 September and a 2–6 away loss to Beşiktaş on 31 August. The current run is a single win, but the numbers across the last five speak to a side in genuine command of their attacking output.
Rizespor, though, have their own form to consider. Their last five matches produced 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at 1.4 points per game, and they failed to score in two of those five. The 0–3 home loss to Fenerbahçe on 10 October was a stark reminder of their defensive vulnerability. Their away record over the last 20 games is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses at 1.1 points per game, conceding 1.6 goals per game. That is a side that struggles to win on the road and leaks goals at an alarming rate.
The matchup table paints a clear picture of the home advantage here. Çorum FK's home figures (2.05 points per game, 1.75 scored, 0.95 conceded) sit well ahead of Rizespor's away numbers (1.1 points per game, 1.25 scored, 1.6 conceded). But Rizespor's away record does include 12 of 20 games going over 2.5 goals, and they have won two of their last three away fixtures — a 2–0 at Eyüpspor and a 2–1 at Gaziantep FK. That recent away resilience is the best counter-argument to the home side's dominance.
There is no head-to-head history between these two sides, so we are working purely on current form and venue records. The absence of prior meetings means there is no pattern to lean on, which keeps the uncertainty high.
The market prices Çorum FK's win at 2.13, implying a 46.95% chance. My own reading of the evidence puts the home win at roughly 45%, which sits just below the market's view. The over 2.5 price at 1.84 (54.35% implied) is tempting given Çorum FK's 5-for-5 over 2.5 in their last five matches, but their home record is only 10 of 20 over, and Rizespor's last five split 3 over and 2 under. I rate over 2.5 at around 53%, which does not clear the bar for a value bet.
The honest answer is that no price on this board offers a genuine edge. The home win is the closest call, but the gap between my estimate and the market's implied probability is too thin to justify a stake. Discipline over impulse — that is the rule.
Key Points:
- Çorum FK: 13 wins from 20 home games, 2.8 goals scored per game in their last five matches
- Rizespor: 5 wins from 20 away games, lost 0–3 to Fenerbahçe on 10 October
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
- Çorum FK went over 2.5 in all 5 of their last 5 matches
- Rizespor failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches
No Bet.