Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Ospitaletto hosting Pergolettese on 18 October in Serie C Girone A, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it.
Ospitaletto at home are the ones to fancy, and the figures back it up loud and clear. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.7 points per game and scoring 1.55 a pop. That's a solid home record. Now look at Pergolettese on the road: 2 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses in 20 away games, 0.75 points per game, and they've failed to score in 10 of those 20. That's a gulf, mate. In their last five matches, Pergolettese have won just once — and that was at home against Athletic Carpi, with a red card to the visitors in the 84th minute. Their away outings in that stretch were a 2-2 draw at Arzignano Valchiampo and a 0-0 at Lecco. Three 0-0 draws in five games tells you they're not exactly lighting up the scoreboard on the road.
Ospitaletto, meanwhile, have won their last two away games — 1-0 at Treviso and 2-0 at Novara — and their home form has been a bit mixed recently, drawing 1-1 with Renate and losing 0-1 to Cittadella. But the longer home record is the one that matters here, and that's a strong one. They've scored 6 in their last five and only conceded 4, which keeps the door open for a home win.
Now, the counter-argument. The head-to-head is thin — just two meetings between these two, and Pergolettese won both. The most recent was back in January at Pergolettese's ground, a 1-0 win for the hosts. The other was 13 months ago at Ospitaletto's ground, a 2-1 away win for Pergolettese. So the H2H is dated and the only meeting at this venue is historical. I'd lean on the current form and venue records rather than those two old results. Also, Pergolettese haven't lost in their last five — 1 win and 4 draws — so they're not in a slump, just a bit flat. And Ospitaletto did drop points at home against Cittadella and Renate recently, so they're not untouchable.
Key Points:
- Ospitaletto's home record: 9W 7D 4L in 20 games, 1.55 goals per game
- Pergolettese's away record: 2W 9D 9L in 20 games, 0.7 goals per game, failed to score in 10 of 20
- Head-to-head is limited: 2 meetings, both won by Pergolettese, one is historical
- Pergolettese's last five: 1W 4D, including three 0-0 draws
- Ospitaletto's last five: 2W 2D 1L, with clean-sheet wins at Treviso and Novara
So here's my call: Ospitaletto home win at 1.84. The home record is strong, the visitors' away record is poor, and the current form points the same way. The market's putting it at about 54%, but I'd rate the chance a touch higher given the gap in the venue numbers. It's not a certainty — Pergolettese haven't lost in five and the H2H is against us — but the weight of evidence says Ospitaletto get the job done.