Preview
Mr SimpleRight then, folks. Oviedo at home to Eibar on 12 October, and if you've been keeping an eye on the form book, this one's got a tale to tell.
Eibar are in a bit of a state of grace. Five wins in a row – 15 goals scored, just 4 conceded. They've not failed to score in any of their last 10 games, and their away record over 20 trips is 10 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses, churning out 1.25 goals a game on the road. They put 3 past Albacete just nine days ago, and before that they were 4-0 at Celta de Vigo II. This is a side that's clicking at both ends, no doubt about it.
Oviedo, on the other hand, are a bit all over the place. Two wins, a draw and two losses in their last five, and that 1-4 defeat at Eldense ten days ago has left a mark. At home over 20 games they've got 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses, scoring 0.8 a game. They've had seven 0-0 draws at home in that stretch – tells you they can park the bus, but also that they struggle to find the front foot when it matters.
Now, the head-to-head here is dated. No meetings in the last 12 months. What we've got is five older games going back to 2021, and they're fairly even: 3 wins each, 5 draws. At Oviedo's ground specifically, the two historical meetings went 1-0 and 0-0, so the home side held their own. But that's history, not current form, and I'd lean on what's happening right now.
The counter-argument is that the market has Oviedo as the favourite at 45.05% implied, and there's a reason for that. Oviedo's home defence is tidy – 0.55 conceded per game, 12 clean sheets in 20. And Eibar's away record, while solid, isn't overwhelming: 10 wins in 20 is good but not dominant. Plus, those historical meetings at this ground suggest a tight affair.
But when you look at the last 10 games side by side, the gap is stark. Eibar: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 2.4 goals a game, 0.8 conceded. Oviedo: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 1.2 goals a game, 1.2 conceded. Eibar are scoring 2.4 a game to Oviedo's 1.2, and conceding less. That's a team in full flight visiting a side that just got thumped 1-4.
Key Points:
- Eibar are on a 5-game winning run, scoring 15 and conceding 4 in that stretch
- Eibar's away record over 20 games: 10W 6D 4L, 1.25 goals per game
- Oviedo's last 5: 2W 1D 2L, including a 1-4 loss to Eldense
- Head-to-head is historical (no meetings in 12 months); 5 older games are fairly even
- Eibar have not failed to score in their last 10 games
So my pick? I'm going with the Eibar away win at 3.59. The form is too strong to ignore, and the price is well above what the market is offering for a side that's won every game they've played in their last five matches. When a team's scoring 3 a game and you've got a side that just lost 1-4 away, you take the road win.