Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Pacos Ferreira are having a right old time of it at the bottom of the table - still waiting for their first league win of the season! Seven games in and they've got five draws and two losses. They've turned drawing into an art form lately, with seven draws in their last ten matches. At home, it's even more dramatic - 60% of their home games end up level.

But here's the thing about these draws - they're not boring 0-0s every time. We've seen some proper crackers like that 2-2 with Sporting CP in the cup and another 2-2 with Oliveirense in the league. They do score at home (1.4 per game) but they also let plenty in (1.4 conceded). Classic case of 'can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives'.

Now Portimonense, well they're a different kettle of fish altogether. Sitting pretty in 8th place with a decent 11 points on the board. But here's where it gets interesting - these lads are absolute machines away from home! We're talking an 80% win rate on their travels. Two goals per game away from home, which is proper tasty.

The only worry? They leak goals like a sieve. Zero clean sheets in their last ten matches - literally none! Both teams have scored in every single one of their recent games. They're averaging 1.6 goals for and 1.6 against, which makes for some entertaining stuff.

Head-to-head, Portimonense have had the number of Pacos recently. Last three meetings all went their way: 2-0, 1-0, 1-0. Pacos haven't beaten them since 2022.

So what's the play here? The bookies have got this priced as a proper 50-50 at 2.60 each, but the numbers tell a different story. You've got a team that wins 80% of away games against a team that wins 20% of home games and hasn't won at all this season. Something's not adding up with those odds, is it?

The both teams to score market looks tempting at 1.80 given Portimonense score everywhere and Pacos do find the net at home. But I'm looking at that away win - Portimonense are just too good on the road to ignore against a side that can't buy a win.