Padova vs Cesena Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B clash between Padova and Cesena. The lads from Padova are sitting mid-table in 12th, while Cesena are flying high in 3rd spot, and there's a reason for that gap in the table, believe me.

Padova's recent form has been a bit hit and miss, hasn't it? Three wins, four draws, and three losses in their last ten games. But here's the kicker - they've not won a single one of their last four home matches! Three draws and a loss at their own patch is worrying stuff. They're averaging just a goal per game over their last ten, and while they're keeping a decent number of clean sheets (30%), they're also conceding at a rate of 1.10 per game. Their recent results show they can grind out results against the lower sides like that 0-1 win at Pescara, but when they face better teams like Venezia at home, they come up short (0-2 loss).

Cesena, on the other hand, are looking proper tasty. Five wins in their last ten games and they're sitting pretty in that promotion spot. They've been solid on their travels too, winning two of their last five away matches. They're scoring slightly more than Padova (1.20 per game) and conceding less (1.00 per game). That recent 1-0 win over Modena at home shows they can handle the strong teams, and even though they lost 1-0 to league leaders Monza, that's no disgrace, is it?

The head-to-head record is pretty tight - two wins each and a couple of draws from five meetings. But Padova have historically done well at home against Cesena with one win and one draw from two matches. Still, form often trumps history in this game, and Cesena's form is miles better right now.

Looking at the stats, Padova are conceding 1.75 goals per game at home recently, which is proper dodgy. Cesena might only be scoring 0.80 away from home on average, but against a leaky home defence like that, they'll fancy their chances.

The odds have got Cesena as slight favorites at 2.38, and that looks about right to me. They're the better team, in better form, and Padova's home record is shocking at the moment. Sometimes you've got to follow the form, and Cesena's got it in spades.