Palermo vs Virtus Entella Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B clash. Palermo, sitting pretty in 4th, welcome Virtus Entella, who are down in 15th and looking over their shoulder. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, but as we know, football isn't played on paper. Still, the numbers make for some pretty convincing reading.

Palermo are on a proper roll. They haven't lost in their last ten outings, picking up six wins and four draws. That's the kind of form that gets you promoted. At home, they've been even more impressive, winning their last four on the bounce without conceding a single goal in three of them. They're scoring for fun lately too – a 3-3 draw with Sampdoria, a 3-2 win over Empoli, and a 3-0 thumping of Bari. They're creating chances (nearly 14 shots a game) and are solid at the back, especially at home where they've only let in 0.5 goals per game recently.

Virtus Entella, on the other hand, have had a right mixed bag. They pulled off a cracking 3-1 win at home to Cesena last time out and even held high-flying Frosinone to a draw. But here's the rub – their away form is diabolical. No wins in their last five on the road, managing just 0.6 goals per game and conceding 1.4. They've lost to the likes of Carrarese and Spezia away from home. They can be stubborn, as shown by those draws, but turning that into points on their travels has been a real struggle.

When these two have met, it's been all Palermo. Five games, three wins for the Rosanero and two draws. Entella have never beaten them. The last meeting back in November ended 1-1, so Entella will cling to that, but Palermo's overall dominance is clear.

The bookies have Palermo at a tasty 1.68 to win. Given they're unbeaten in ten, winning all their recent home games, and facing a side that can't buy an away win, that looks like decent value to me. Entella might try to park the bus, but Palermo have the quality to break them down.

Key Points:

Palermo are unbeaten in 10 matches (6 wins, 4 draws).

At home, they've won their last 4, keeping 3 clean sheets.

Virtus Entella have failed to win any of their last 5 away games (2 draws, 3 losses).

Head-to-head: Palermo are unbeaten in 5 meetings (3 wins, 2 draws).

• Palermo average 1.5 goals per game at home; Entella average just 0.6 away.

All signs point to a home win. Palermo are the form team, strong at home, and facing an opponent with a serious travel sickness. I'm backing the hosts to get the job done.