Paris FC vs Auxerre Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Paris FC are hosting the bottom-of-the-table Auxerre in what looks like a proper six-pointer, even if it's only November.

Paris FC are sitting in 12th with 14 points, and to be honest, their recent form's been a bit hit and miss. They've managed 3 wins in their last 10, but they're leaking goals like a sieve - 1.7 per game on average. At home, it's even worse, conceding 1.8 per game with only one win from their last five on their own patch. They did have a decent result beating Monaco 1-0 away, but then got hammered 4-2 by Lille in their last outing.

Auxerre, well, they're in a right mess. Rock bottom of the league with just 8 points from 13 games. Their attack is virtually non-existent - only 5 goals in 10 games, that's half a goal per game! Away from home, it's even more dire. They haven't won any of their last four away matches and are shipping 2.25 goals per game on their travels. Their recent results tell the story: 0-0 with Lyon (decent point), but then 2-0 loss to Angers, 0-1 to Marseille, 3-0 to Strasbourg.

Now, here's the interesting bit. When these two have met, it's usually been a tight, low-scoring affair. Out of 8 previous meetings, only 3 have gone over 2.5 goals. The last two encounters both finished 0-2. Paris FC have the edge at home against Auxerre historically (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), but neither side exactly lights up the scoreboard when they face each other.

Both teams have defensive issues, but Auxerre's attack is so toothless that it's hard to see them contributing much to a goal fest. Paris FC will likely have most of the possession (they average 55% compared to Auxerre's 43%), but their own defensive frailties at home mean this won't be straightforward.

Given the historical pattern between these sides and Auxerre's complete inability to score goals away from home, I'm leaning towards this staying under 2.5 goals. The odds are even money, and when you look at the recent head-to-head results and Auxerre's attacking stats, that looks about right to me.