Preview
Right, so we've got Paris FC hosting Rennes on 18 October in Ligue 1, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a bit of a puzzle to it.
Rennes come in with some serious momentum. They've won their last two — a 2–1 over OFI in the Europa League and a 4–1 thrashing of Auxerre at home — and in those two games they've scored six and conceded just two. Over their last 10 matches across all competitions, they've picked up 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 1.5 per game. And when you look at the head-to-head, Rennes have won both of the last two meetings with Paris FC: 2–1 at their own ground back in May and 1–0 at Paris FC's place in November. That's a small sample, sure, but it's a clean one.
But here's where it gets interesting for the defence-minded punters. Paris FC at home have been solid in the numbers — over their last 20 home games they've conceded just 1.3 per game and kept 7 clean sheets. In their last five matches, they've only conceded 4 goals in total, and their xG against in recent games with data has been a mere 0.52 per game. That's a team that doesn't let you in easily. And Rennes? Well, they've failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches, including that 0–4 loss at Lyon and the 0–0 at Sturm Graz. So the away side isn't exactly rattling the net on the road.
The counter-argument, though, is that Paris FC did lose their last game — 0–1 at Lorient on 10 October — and they've failed to score in 2 of their last 5. Their home record over 20 games does include 6 losses, and Rennes' away form over 20 games has seen them score 1.55 per game. So there's plenty of room for both sides to find the net, and the market's pricing both teams to score at 1.57, which implies about 64% chance.
Key Points:
- Rennes have won both recent head-to-head meetings (2–1 and 1–0) and are on a 2-game winning run
- Paris FC's home defence: 1.3 conceded per game over 20 home games, 7 clean sheets
- Rennes have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Both teams' records at their respective venues show a majority of games where at least one side went scoreless
- Paris FC's xG against in recent games is just 0.52 per game
So here's my take. The defences are telling me this is a low-scoring affair. Paris FC at home don't concede easily, and Rennes have been quiet on the road. The numbers I'm looking at — the clean sheets, the failed-to-score counts, the xG against — all point to at least one of these teams going home without a goal. I'd rate the chance of both teams failing to score at around 45%, which sits above the market's 40% view. That's a small but real edge.
My pick: both teams not to score.
