Parma vs Udinese Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this scrap between two sides who're having a right old time of it in Serie A's basement. Parma, sitting pretty in 15th with 11 points, host Udinese who're a whole four points better off in 10th. Not exactly title contenders, are they?

Parma's recent form at home hasn't been half bad, mind you. They pulled off a cracking 2-2 draw with AC Milan, beat Torino 2-1, and just nicked a 2-1 win away at Verona. They're averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded - proper end-to-end stuff that keeps you on your toes. The stats show both teams have scored in 70% of their recent games, which tells you they're always good for a goal or two.

Udinese, on the other hand, couldn't buy an away win at the minute. Zero wins in their last three on the road, getting stuffed 2-0 by Roma and looking about as solid as a chocolate teapot defensively. They might score more (1.5 per game), but they're letting in 1.8 - only one clean sheet in ten matches speaks volumes, doesn't it?

Here's where it gets interesting though. These two have history, and it's usually good value for us punters. In their last nine meetings, both teams have found the net six times, and six of those games went over 2.5 goals. The pattern's there if you're looking.

The bookies can't split 'em - 2.62 for the home win, 3.10 for the draw, 2.80 for the away. That tells you everything about how evenly matched they are on paper. But when you dig into the numbers, both teams to score at 1.95 looks the business.

Neither side can keep a clean sheet, both are scoring regularly, and their head-to-heads suggest goals. Sometimes the simplest bet is the best one, and this feels like one of those occasions.