Preview
Mr SimpleRight then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 2 clash. PAU, sitting 7th, welcome Boulogne down in 14th. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, but football's never that simple, is it? The table tells one story, the recent results tell another.
PAU are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act at the moment. Their last two outings? Smashing wins. A 3-0 away demolition of a decent RED Star side, followed by a gritty 1-0 win at Laval. Proper good results that. But here's the rub – they've been doing all their best work on the road. At home, it's been a different tale. Their last four at their own gaff? No wins. Two draws (2-2 with Grenoble, 3-3 with Rodez) and two losses (1-2 to Amiens and Le Mans). They're scoring alright – 1.75 goals a game at home recently – but they're leaking like a sieve, conceding 2.25 per game. That's not a recipe for clean sheets.
Now, Boulogne. They're down the bottom, but don't write 'em off, especially not away from home. They've become a proper tough team to beat on their travels. In their last five away games, they've won one, drawn three, and lost just one. And who did they beat? Only Saint Etienne, who are flying high in 4th! They also nicked a 2-2 draw at 5th-placed RED Star. They're organised, they're stubborn, and they've shown they can get a result against the better sides. They don't score loads away – just one a game on average – but they only concede 1.4.
The head-to-head is as even as it gets: two wins each, four draws from eight meetings. Although, it's worth noting PAU walloped Boulogne 3-0 just back in September. That'll be fresh in the memory.
So, what's gonna happen? PAU will probably have most of the ball – they average 59% possession at home. They'll get shots off too, averaging 16 per home game. Boulogne, meanwhile, aren't shy away, firing off 13 shots a game on their travels. The key stat for me? Look at the 'Both Teams to Score' column. PAU's recent home games have all seen both teams net. Every single one. Boulogne's away games have seen both teams score in three of their last five. Put those trends together, and it points to goals at both ends.
The bookies have 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at 1.83. Given the defensive frailties PAU have shown at home and Boulogne's ability to nick a goal against good teams, I fancy those odds represent a bit of value.
Key Points:
PAU are 7th, Boulogne 14th – an 11-point gap in the table.
PAU's form: Brilliant away (wins at RED Star & Laval), woeful at home (no wins in last 4).
Boulogne's form: Tough to beat away (1 win, 3 draws in last 5).
Head-to-head: Dead even historically (2 wins each, 4 draws), but PAU won the last meeting 3-0.
Critical Trend: PAU's last four home games all finished with Both Teams Scoring.
Stats: PAU concede 2.25 goals per game at home recently; Boulogne score 1.0 per game away.
The Simple Verdict:
This has the makings of an open game. PAU will attack at home, but their defense is suspect. Boulogne are capable of causing problems on the break. I can see both nets bulging. The value pick here is Both Teams to Score - Yes.