Preview
PajimonPAU have been cooking on the braai lately, and this one's looking like a proper feast. The home side have won their last three matches, scoring seven goals and conceding just three, and they've been productive at their own ground. On 9 October they beat Laval 3–2 at home, on 18 September they put two past Dunkerque in a 2–0 win, and on 4 September they drew 1–1 with Sochaux. Add in the 2–1 away win at Guingamp on 16 October and you've got a side that's been scoring and winning in bunches.
Grenoble, on the other hand, have been struggling to find the back of the net. Eish, they lost 0–2 at home to Boulogne on 16 October and lost 0–2 away to Montpellier on 9 October. Their current run is two losses, with zero goals scored and four conceded. In their last five matches they've failed to score in three of them, and every single one of those five games finished under 2.5 goals. That's a team that's not putting a ball in the net, and it's not looking pretty.
The head-to-head tells a story too. In the five meetings listed, PAU have won two, drawn three and lost zero. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 2–2 draw at PAU's ground on 23 January. The older meetings are historical record only, and in those four PAU won two and drew two without a loss.
Looking at the wider numbers, PAU's last 10 games across all venues give them 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses at 1.4 points per game, scoring 1.2 per game and conceding 1.1. Grenoble's last 10 give 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses at 0.9 points per game, scoring 0.8 per game and conceding 1.5. The gap in form is hard to ignore, and it's not just one or two games - it's a stretch.
Now, the counter-argument. PAU's home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses, which is a mixed bag. They've conceded 1.6 per game at home over that span and only kept 3 clean sheets. Grenoble's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses, so they're not exactly a pushover on the road either. And the H2H is mostly draws - three of the five meetings ended level. Grenoble's xG data from their last two games shows they created 1.13 per game but scored nothing, which means they're not completely without threat, just without the finishing touch. A 2–2 draw is always on the table when you look at how this fixture has gone.
Key Points:
- PAU have won their last 3 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 3
- Grenoble have lost their last 2, scoring 0 and conceding 4
- PAU have not lost to Grenoble in 5 meetings (2 wins, 3 draws)
- PAU's last 10: 4W 2D 4L at 1.4 ppg; Grenoble's last 10: 2W 3D 5L at 0.9 ppg
- Grenoble have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and all 5 finished under 2.5 goals
The market has PAU's win at 1.83, which implies a 54.64% chance. My read on the form, the head-to-head and Grenoble's current struggles puts PAU's win probability a touch higher than that. I'm comfortable backing the home side here. Grab your beer, this one's a good one.
My pick: PAU home win.
