PAU vs Saint Etienne Prediction

Alright, gather round! We've got a tasty Ligue 2 clash down in the south-west this Saturday evening, and if the numbers are anything to go by, we might be looking at a bit of a mismatch. Second-placed Saint Etienne roll into town to face PAU, who've been about as comfortable at home as a bloke wearing woolly socks in a heatwave.

Let's start with the hosts, shall we? PAU are sitting 11th in the table with 34 points from 24 games, which is mid-table mediocrity personified. But it's their recent form that has me worried – they've won just three of their last ten matches and, crucially, they've not managed a single victory in their last four home games. Not one! They're drawing half and losing half at their own gaff, leaking 2.25 goals per game while they're at it. Their last outing was a seven-goal thriller against league leaders Troyes, but they came out on the wrong end of a 4-3 defeat. Before that, they lost 1-2 at home to Boulogne, who are down in 13th. That's not exactly inspiring stuff, is it?

Now, Saint Etienne are a different kettle of fish entirely. They're second in the table with 43 points, just two behind the leaders, and they've hit a proper rich vein of form. Three wins on the bounce – beating Laval 2-1, Guingamp 2-1 away, and Montpellier 1-0. That's seven goals scored and only two conceded in their last three. Their defence has been tighter than a drum all season, conceding just 0.90 per game over the last ten matches. Sure, their away record isn't perfect – they've only won 20% of their last five on the road – but they're playing a side that simply can't buy a win at home right now.

And then there's the head-to-head, which makes for grim reading if you're a PAU fan. Saint Etienne have won three of the last five meetings, including a absolutely brutal 6-0 hammering back in October. Six-nil! PAU have never beaten Saint Etienne at home in this fixture, managing just one draw and one defeat. The maths says Saint Etienne have scored 2.4 goals per game against PAU on average, while PAU have only managed 0.8 in return.

Looking at the goal expectancies, the Poisson models have this down as a tight affair – about 1.38 for PAU and 1.43 for Saint Etienne – but given that 6-0 result earlier this season and PAU's habit of conceding over two goals per game at home, I reckon Saint Etienne will have enough quality to find the net.

Key Points:

• Saint Etienne are 9 points clear of PAU in the table and chasing automatic promotion

• PAU have a 0% win rate in their last 4 home games (2 draws, 2 losses)

• Saint Etienne have won their last 3 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 2

• The reverse fixture in October ended 6-0 to Saint Etienne

• Saint Etienne's defence has been rock-solid, conceding just 0.90 goals per game over the last 10 matches

• PAU concede an average of 2.25 goals per game at home

Summary: The away win at 2.15 looks the business here. Saint Etienne are flying, PAU are struggling at home, and that 6-0 demolition earlier this season shows the gulf in class. Even with Saint Etienne's patchy away record, they're facing a side that hasn't won at home in four attempts. I'm backing the promotion chasers to get the job done.