Paysandu vs Amazonas Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper gander at this Brazilian Serie B relegation six-pointer between two sides who've been having a right old time of it at the wrong end of the table. Paysandu are propping up the whole division with just 27 points, while Amazonas aren't much better off in 18th with 35 points. Both teams are already looking over their shoulders, but someone's got to take the points here.

When you look at the recent form, blimey, it's not pretty reading for either side. Paysandu have managed just one win in their last 10 games, and here's the killer stat - they haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches! Zero! Zilch! Nada! They're letting in 1.7 goals per game and scoring 1.2, which tells you they're always in for a bit of a barnstormer.

Amazonas have been slightly less disastrous with three wins in their last 10, and they've managed three clean sheets in that run - which is three more than Paysandu, I might add! But here's the thing - their away form is absolutely shocking too. They haven't won any of their last five away matches and are only scoring 0.6 goals per game on their travels.

The head-to-head is perfectly balanced over six matches - two wins each and two draws. Interestingly, Paysandu have never beaten Amazonas at home in two attempts, and both meetings this season ended 1-1. That tells you these two are pretty evenly matched, despite what the league table might suggest.

Looking at the recent results, Paysandu's losses have come against some decent sides like Coritiba (top of the table) and remo (3rd place), while their only win was a surprising 4-2 against Criciuma. Amazonas have had mixed results recently - they lost to struggling Botafogo SP but beat Cuiaba 2-0 and also managed a 2-1 win against Criciuma.

The bookies have this as a proper toss-up - Home win at 2.60, Draw at 3.20, Away win at 2.62. But given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and the fact that 70% of Paysandu's recent games have seen both teams score, I'm leaning towards goals at both ends.

Paysandu are scoring at home (1 per game recently) and Amazonas, while not prolific away from home, should be able to breach that leaky Paysandu defense that hasn't kept anyone out in 10 games. It's got the makings of a proper relegation scrap where neither side can afford to lose, which often leads to open, attacking football.

Key Points:

• Paysandu haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 matches

• Amazonas have won just 0 of their last 5 away games

• Both teams are in the bottom three of the league

• 70% of Paysandu's recent games have seen both teams score

• Head-to-head record is perfectly balanced (2 wins each, 2 draws)

• Both meetings this season ended 1-1

Given the defensive frailties on both sides and the importance of the match, I'm backing both teams to find the net. Paysandu's defense is like a sieve, and even Amazonas's struggling attack should be able to poke one through.