Preview
The Force is strong with Mold Alexandra, and weak with Penrhyncoch — so strong, in fact, that the numbers leave little room for doubt.
Penrhyncoch arrive at their ground on 24 October having lost all five of their recent matches, scoring just two goals and conceding thirteen. The 1–5 defeat to Bangor City 1876 FC on 12 September, the 0–1 loss to Bala Town on 15 September, the 0–2 to Ruthin Town on 25 September, the 0–1 to Gresford Athletic on 3 October, and the 1–4 to Llanuwchllyn on 10 October paint a picture of a side struggling to find any rhythm. In their latest ten games across all venues, Penrhyncoch have won none, drawn one, and lost nine, scoring 0.4 goals per game and conceding 3.1. They have failed to score in seven of those ten. A dark side, indeed.
Mold Alexandra, by contrast, have won three of their last five, drawing one and losing one, with 16 goals scored and just 7 conceded. The 4–0 away win at Brickfield Rangers on 10 October, the 4–2 at Bala Town on 26 September, and the 5–1 at Gresford Athletic on 6 September show a side in genuine command. Over their latest ten games, Mold Alexandra have won seven, drawn one, and lost two, scoring 2.6 per game and conceding 1.1. They have scored in every one of those ten matches. You must be very still to see the gap, but there it is.
The venue records tell a similar story. Over 20 away games spanning 14 months, Mold Alexandra have won 10, drawn 1, and lost 9, averaging 1.55 points per game and 1.8 goals scored. Penrhyncoch's home record over 20 games — spanning 13 months — shows 7 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses at 1.2 points per game. The gap in points per game and goals scored points the same direction.
The head-to-head is mostly historical. The one meeting within the last 12 months, at Penrhyncoch's ground on 14 February 2026, ended 3–1 to Penrhyncoch. But that was eight months ago, and the form since has swung dramatically. The older meetings — a 2–2 at Mold Alexandra, a 0–0 at Penrhyncoch, a 1–2 at Mold Alexandra, and a 1–3 at Penrhyncoch — are dated and do not reflect the current state of either side. The past is a clump of junk, as they say.
The counter-argument, such as it is, rests on Penrhyncoch's home record over 20 games and that recent 3–1 H2H win. But 20 home games span 13 months, and the last two at home have been a 0–1 loss to Gresford Athletic and a 0–1 loss to Bala Town. The 3–1 result is eight months old and sits in a very different form context. A moment of hope, perhaps, but the tide has turned since.
Key Points:
- Penrhyncoch have lost all five recent matches, scoring 2 and conceding 13
- Mold Alexandra have won 7 of their last 10, scoring 2.6 per game and conceding 1.1
- Mold Alexandra's away record: 10W 1D 9L over 20 games; Penrhyncoch home: 7W 3D 10L
- The only recent H2H meeting (8 months ago) was a 3–1 Penrhyncoch win, but form has since reversed
- Penrhyncoch failed to score in 7 of their last 10; Mold Alexandra scored in all 10
The market prices Mold Alexandra's win at 1.44, implying a 69.44% chance. The football evidence — the five-game losing run, the scoring drought, the away form of the visitors — suggests the true likelihood sits comfortably above that figure. I rate Mold Alexandra's chance of winning at roughly 75%. The verdict: away win.
