Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this A-League opener between Perth Glory and Wellington Phoenix. The lads from Perth are hosting, but you've got to wonder if home advantage means much here when you dig into the numbers.

Perth's recent form ain't pretty, is it? Two wins from their last ten games tells its own story. They've been leaking goals like a sieve too - 1.8 per game on average. Those back-to-back friendly losses to Melbourne Victory (3-0 and 1-0) won't have filled the home fans with confidence either. Mind you, they did put four past Adelaide United back in April, so there's some firepower in there somewhere.

Wellington, on the other hand, look a bit more solid. Four wins in their last ten gives them a 40% win rate, and they're tighter at the back with only 1.5 goals conceded per game. They had that shocking 4-0 cup defeat to Heidelberg United, but bounced back with a 1-0 win over Wrexham, which shows they can bounce back.

Now here's the stat that really catches the eye - Perth have NEVER beaten Wellington at home in six attempts! That's right, zero wins, three draws, three losses. The last meeting was a 1-1 draw back in July, but before that, Wellington won 2-0 at Perth's place in May.

Both teams tend to find the net though. Perth have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games, and the head-to-head shows goals from both sides in five of nine meetings. With Perth's defensive record and Wellington's decent away form (33% win rate on the road), we could be in for another tight one with goals at both ends.

The bookies have Perth as slight favourites at 1.90, but given that home record against these opponents, that looks a bit short to me. Wellington at 3.70 might just be the value play here - better form, head-to-head advantage, and they know how to get results at this ground.