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Right, so we've got Peterborough at home to Burton Albion on 17 October, and if you've been following the form, the hosts look like the ones to fancy here.
Peterborough have won their last two games, scoring seven and conceding just two. That 3-1 away at Leicester on 10 October was a statement, and before that they'd put four past Ipswich Town U21 at home on 6 October. Yes, they did lose 0-2 to Doncaster at home on 19 September and 0-1 at Stockport County on 26 September, but the last two have been all fire. At home over their last 20 games, Peterborough have scored 1.8 a game and picked up 1.25 points per game. That's a solid home record for League One.
Burton Albion, on the other hand, are struggling on the road. Over their last 20 away games, they've only won 4, drawn 9 and lost 7, scoring just 1.05 a game. Their last three away trips have been a 0-1 loss at Doncaster on 10 October, a 0-0 draw at Grimsby on 6 October, and a 1-0 win at Plymouth on 26 September. That 0-1 at Doncaster was their most recent outing, and their xG for in their last three games with data has been just 0.67 a game. They're not creating much on the road.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months tells a similar story. Peterborough won 1-0 at Burton Albion on 18 October 2025, and the most recent meeting at Peterborough's ground on 19 April 2026 was a 1-1 draw. So the hosts have a clean record in the recent fixture - one win, one draw, no losses.
Now, the counter-argument. Peterborough's xG against in their last two games with data has been 2.6 a game, which is a lot. They've conceded 1.45 a game at home over 20 games, and that 0-2 loss to Doncaster at home on 19 September showed they can be vulnerable. Burton Albion's away defence is actually a touch tighter than Peterborough's home defence - 1.15 conceded per game away versus 1.45 at home. And Burton's away games have been under 2.5 in 11 of their last 20, so this could be a low-scoring affair.
Key Points:
- Peterborough have won their last two games, scoring 7 and conceding 2
- Burton Albion's away record over 20 games: 4W 9D 7L, scoring just 1.05 per game
- Recent head-to-head: Peterborough won 1-0 at Burton Albion, drew 1-1 at home
- Peterborough's xG against is 2.6 per game in their last two games with data
- Burton Albion's away games have been under 2.5 in 11 of their last 20
The football points to Peterborough as the stronger side at home, but Peterborough are priced at 1.87 (53.48% implied), which sits above my honest estimate of their chances. The other markets - under 2.5, both teams to score - are all mixed with the evidence pulling in different directions. When the numbers don't line up with the price, the best tip is no tip at all.
No Bet.