Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Prediction
Union's Home Fortress vs NYCFC's Road Warriors
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this MLS playoff scrap between Philadelphia Union and New York City FC. Union finished top of the Eastern Conference with 66 points, while NYCFC snuck in 5th with 56, but form's what matters now, not what you did back in February.
Both sides come into this with identical recent records - 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses in their last 10, both grabbing 1.90 points per game. But dig a bit deeper and you'll see two very different stories. Union have been proper Jekyll and Hyde - they put six past DC United one week then got absolutely hammered 7-0 by Vancouver the next. That's some wild stuff, mate! They did beat NYCFC 1-0 in their last meeting though, which'll give them confidence.
At home, Union are solid as a rock - 75% win rate and only letting in 0.5 goals per game. Six clean sheets in 10 shows they know how to defend when they're on their own patch. They take plenty of shots too (18 per game at home), though they're not always the most clinical.
NYCFC's away form is surprisingly brilliant - 80% win rate on their travels, banging in 2 goals per game away from home. That's proper impressive for an away side in the playoffs. But they only keep 30% clean sheets, so they're definitely leaky at the back. They're more accurate with their shooting though - 41.9% compared to Union's 26.1% at home.
Head-to-head, Union absolutely dominate this fixture - 7 wins to just 2 for NYCFC, and they've won 4 of 5 at home against them. Interestingly though, 7 of the 9 meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, so when these two get together, goals usually flow.
The bookies have Union as favourites at 1.85, which makes sense given their home record and H2H dominance. NYCFC are 4.10 outsiders, which might be a bit harsh given their away form.
For me, this feels like it could be tighter than the stats suggest. Playoff football often sees teams more cautious, and Union's home defense is no joke. NYCFC might score, but Union should keep it tight at the back. The last meeting was 1-0 to Union, and while history shows goals, recent form suggests it could be another tight affair.