Pisa vs Cagliari Prediction

Blimey, Pisa are in a right old state, ain't they? Bottom of the Serie A pile with just one win all season – that's one victory in 28 attempts, mate. Even my nan's bingo team has better form than that, and she's been playing with a broken dabber since Christmas.

The Azzurri have been absolutely battered lately. We're talking a 4-0 hiding from Juventus last time out, and before that it was a 6-2 tonking at the hands of Inter. That's 10 goals conceded in two games against the big boys. At home, they're shipping two a game on average and haven't won in their last five at their own gaff – four defeats and a solitary draw against Hellas Verona. They've scored just three goals in those five home games, which is about as threatening as a declawed kitten.

Now Cagliari ain't exactly setting the world alight, but they're 15 points clear of this lot and have picked up seven wins already. They've even beaten Juventus 1-0 away from home this year, and took care of Fiorentina 2-1 on the road too. Sure, they got done 2-0 by Roma recently and lost to Como, but compared to Pisa's circus act, they look like Real Madrid.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading – three of the last four have ended level, including a 2-2 thriller back in December. Pisa just can't seem to beat Cagliari – never have in four attempts. But here's the thing – the bookies are offering 3.00 on a Cagliari win. That's a cracking price when you consider Pisa lose four out of five at home. Even accounting for Cagliari's patchy away form, the maths says there's value in backing the visitors.

Key Points:

• Pisa have lost 80% of their last five home games, conceding 2.0 goals per game

• Cagliari beat Juventus 1-0 away in January and Fiorentina 2-1 on the road

• Pisa have scored just 0.60 goals per game at home this season

• Three of the last four H2H meetings have ended in draws

• Cagliari win priced at 3.00 offers value against a side with one win all season

Summary: Back Cagliari to win at 3.00. Pisa are desperate but dreadful, and the Sardinians have enough quality to pick up three points against a side that concedes for fun.