Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Pisa hosting Cremonese on 17 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got that tight, low-scoring feel about it.
Pisa kicked off their last five with a 3-0 away win at Vicenza just seven days ago, a nice bounce-back after a 1-4 home defeat to Virtus Entella five weeks back (and that one had a red card in the 35th minute, so it wasn't exactly a fair test). In between, they drew 2-2 at Mantova and lost 0-3 to Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia. So it's been a bit of a rollercoaster – two wins, a draw, two losses. Their current run is a single win, and they've scored 9 and conceded 9 across those five.
Cremonese, on the other hand, have been quietly solid. Two wins and three draws in their last five, no defeats. They kept a 0-0 at Arezzo just seven days ago (though they did pick up a red card in the 59th), beat Juventus 1-0 in a friendly two weeks back, and drew 0-0 at home to Virtus Entella. The only time they've really opened up is that 3-1 win over Padova at home five weeks ago. Their current run is a draw, and they've scored 6 and conceded 3 across those five.
Now, the head-to-head at this ground is a bit thin – just one recent meeting within the last 12 months, and Pisa won 1-0 back in November 2025. The other recent meeting was Cremonese's 3-0 win at their own end in May. So it's been a bit of a split, with each side taking one. The older meetings go back two years and are just historical record, so I'd lean on the recent stuff.
Here's where it gets interesting for the low-scoring angle. Cremonese's away record over 20 games shows 16 of those 20 were BTTS no – meaning at least one team failed to score. That's 80%. Their last 10 games across all grounds? 8 out of 10 were BTTS no. And their xG for in the three games with data is a mere 0.28 per game. That's not a lot of chance creation. Pisa at home, meanwhile, have failed to score in 9 of their last 20 home games, and their xG against in recent games sits at 0.94 per game.
The counter-argument? Pisa's last five games all went over 2.5, and they've scored 9 in those 5. Their xG for is 2.15 per game, which suggests they're creating plenty. So there's a real chance Pisa put a few past Cremonese. But the question is whether Cremonese will get on the scoresheet, and the numbers say probably not. Their away record and that xG for figure are hard to ignore.
The market's pricing both teams not to score at 1.98, which implies about a 50% chance. My read on the evidence – Cremonese's away record, their xG for, the pattern of low-scoring draws – puts it a touch higher than that. I'd say around 53%, which gives us a little value over the bookmaker's view.
Key Points:
- Cremonese's away record: 16 of 20 games were BTTS no
- Cremonese's xG for in recent games: 0.28 per game
- Pisa's home record: 9 of 20 games were BTTS no
- H2H at this venue: Pisa won 1-0 in November 2025
- Cremonese's last 10: 8 of 10 were BTTS no
Verdict: Both teams not to score at 1.98.