Preview
PajimonYo, what's up people! Pajimon here with another one for the boys. Pisa hosting Cremonese on 17 October in Serie B, and let me tell you, this one's got that low-scoring flavour I love — like a slow-cooked potjie on a cold night, you know?
The strongest case here is simple: both of the recent head-to-head meetings between these two sides ended with at least one team failing to score. Back in November 2025 at Pisa's ground, it was 1–0 to the hosts. Then in May 2026 at Cremonese's end, it was 3–0 to the hosts. Two meetings, two clean sheets for one side. That's a pattern, and patterns don't just evaporate because a new calendar rolls around.
Now look at Cremonese on the road. Over their last 20 away games, 16 of them ended with at least one team not scoring. That's a massive 80% BTTS no rate on the road. Add to that their xG numbers from the three recent games where data is available: they've generated just 0.28 expected goals per game and, more tellingly, scored zero actual goals in those three. Their attacking output has been practically non-existent. Pisa's defensive xG against sits at 0.94 per game over the same stretch, which is a manageable number.
Cremonese's recent form is flat — two wins, three draws, no losses in their last five, but the most recent was a 0–0 draw at Arezzo where they picked up a red card in the 59th minute. They're not losing, sure, but they're not scoring either. Two of their last five ended in 0–0. The current run is just that one 0–0 draw, and it tells you everything about their creative output right now.
The counter-argument is that Pisa have been scoring freely. Their last five matches all went over 2.5 goals, and they've netted 9 in that span. Their xG for is 2.15 per game over three matches with data. So yes, Pisa will probably find the net. The question is whether Cremonese do the same. And the evidence says they won't. Pisa's home record is rough — 3 wins, 3 draws, 14 losses in 20 home games — but that's about losing, not about clean sheets. They've kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5, and their xG against is low. The 1–4 home loss to Virtus Entella five weeks ago came with a red card in the 35th minute, so that's not a fair read on their defensive shape.
Key Points:
- Both recent head-to-head meetings (1–0 at Pisa, 3–0 at Cremonese) were BTTS no
- Cremonese's last 20 away games: 16 ended with at least one team not scoring
- Cremonese's xG for is 0.28 per game with 0 actual goals in 3 recent matches
- Pisa's xG against is 0.94 per game, keeping their defensive threat manageable
- Cremonese scored just one goal in their last two matches
My verdict: both teams not to score. Pisa will likely get their goal, but Cremonese's road scoring is a ghost, and the head-to-head pattern says one side goes blank. Grab that 1.98 and pour yourself a cold one, boet.