Preview
Value VinnyThe number that jumps off the page here is Cremonese's away scoring record: 11 of their last 20 games on the road ended without them finding the net, and 16 of those 20 were BTTS-no. That is an 80% rate, and it is the single most relevant statistic for this fixture.
Cremonese's recent form tells the same story. They drew 0-0 at Arezzo seven days before kickoff, drew 0-0 at home to Virtus Entella, and drew 2-2 at Cesena. Three of their last five games were BTTS-no. Their xG figures across three recent matches sit at 0.28 per game, with zero actual goals in those three. They are not creating, and they are not scoring. The bookmakers have priced both teams to score at 1.83, implying a 54.64% chance. The football says otherwise.
Pisa have been more prolific of late. Their xG for across three recent games is 2.15 per game, and they won 3-0 at Vicenza just seven days before this. But their home record is a genuine concern: 3 wins, 3 draws and 14 losses in 20 home games, with 9 of those 20 ending without Pisa finding the net. So while Pisa are likely to score, there is a real chance they do not. Either way, the BTTS-no outcome lands.
The head-to-head at Pisa's ground adds context. The only recent meeting here was a 1-0 Pisa win in November 2025, and the older meeting in May 2025 was a 2-1 Pisa win. Both were low-scoring. The reverse venue at Cremonese saw a 3-0 Cremonese win in May 2026, but that is less relevant for this fixture.
The counter-argument is that Pisa's home record is poor and Cremonese have not lost in five games. Their away record of 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in 20 games is better than Pisa's home record on several key metrics. If Cremonese's defensive solidity holds and they pick up a point, the BTTS-no outcome still lands. The risk is that Pisa's 2.15 xG for translates into a goal and Cremonese, against all their recent form, find one of their own. But that would require Cremonese to score at a rate far above their 0.28 xG per game and their 9-in-20 away scoring record.
Key Points:
- Cremonese have failed to score in 11 of their last 20 away games, and 16 of those 20 were BTTS-no.
- Cremonese's xG for across three recent matches is 0.28 per game, with zero actual goals.
- Pisa's home record includes 9 of 20 games where they failed to score.
- The head-to-head meetings at Pisa's ground were low-scoring wins (1-0 and 2-1).
- Cremonese have not lost in their last five matches, but three of those five were BTTS-no.
I'm backing both teams not to score at 1.98. The evidence points to at least one of these two sides failing to find the net, and the price offers genuine value against the market's 50.51% implied probability.