Platense vs Instituto Cordoba Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Platense welcome Instituto Cordoba in what the early table suggests could be a proper scrap down the bottom. Both sides kicked off the new season without a win – Platense nicked a point in a 0-0 draw at Union Santa Fe, while Instituto fell 0-1 at home to Velez Sarsfield. But forget the one game, the real story is in the last ten, and it makes for grim reading if you're a fan of goals or Platense wins.

Platense are on a proper barren run, my friends. Ten games without a win – that's zero victories, four draws, and six defeats. They've scored just four goals in that time and conceded fifteen. That's relegation form, no two ways about it. At home, it's not much better: three draws and a loss in their last four, scoring 0.75 per game. Their last result was that 0-0 draw, which at least stopped the rot of losses, but they simply cannot find the net.

Instituto Cordoba aren't setting the world alight either, but they look a tad more solid. Two wins, four draws, and four losses in their last ten. They've kept a clean sheet in half of those games, which is decent. The problem is up front, especially on the road, where they've failed to win in four, scoring just 0.5 goals per away game. They lost 1-0 at Deportivo Riestra and 2-1 at Sarmiento Junin recently, so they're not exactly travellers.

Now, the history books say Platense own this fixture at home – three wins out of three. The last meeting was a 1-1 draw back in August, but that was then. This Platense side looks a shadow of those past teams.

The stats paint a clear picture of two sides who can't hit a cow's backside with a banjo. Platense at home average 12 shots but only get about a quarter of them on target. Instituto away are even less accurate. Both teams have passable pass completion, but the final product is missing. Instituto's defence away concedes just one goal a game on average, which is tidy.

All this points to one thing: a lack of goals. The bookies have Under 2.5 goals at a skinny 1.41, which tells you everything. Both Teams to Score? 'No' is at 1.60. The market reckons there's a 60-70% chance at least one team blanks. Given Platense's 20% clean sheet rate and Instituto's 50%, I'm inclined to agree.

Key Points:

Platense are winless in ten, scoring just 0.4 goals per game on average.

Instituto are winless in four away games, scoring 0.5 per game on the road.

Head-to-head favours Platense at home, but current form overrides history.

Both teams struggle for goals and have decent clean sheet records.

• The last meeting finished 1-1, but low-scoring games are the trend for both.

Summary:

This has '0-0' or '1-0 either way' written all over it. Two out-of-form, goal-shy teams meeting early in the season. The value isn't in picking a winner – neither inspires confidence. The smart money, the maths money, is on this being a cagey, low-event affair where at least one team fails to score. The odds for 'Both Teams to Score - No' at 1.60 offer genuine value against the likelihood. Sometimes the best bet is the simplest one.