Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction

Plymouth sit at the top of the statistical table when you stack their home record against AFC Wimbledon's away numbers. In 20 home games, Plymouth have won 11, drawn 4 and lost 5, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Over on the other side, AFC Wimbledon's 20 away games have produced just 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses, with 0.95 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game. The gap in points per game — 1.85 to 1.00 — tells you exactly where the weight of evidence sits.

Plymouth arrive in good shape. Their last five matches have yielded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 13 goals scored and 6 conceded. The 4-2 win at Blackpool on 19 September and the 2-0 away win at Leyton Orient on 3 October show a side scoring freely on both sides of the pitch. Their only blemish in that stretch was the 0-1 home loss to Burton Albion on 26 September, and the 2-2 draw at Newport County on 6 October in the EFL Trophy.

AFC Wimbledon, by contrast, have gone three games without a win. Their last five matches produced 2 wins and 3 draws, but the scoring tells the real story: 4 goals scored, 1 conceded, 0.8 per game on the attack. They have drawn their last three — 0-0 at home to Barnet on 6 October (with a red card in the 77th minute), 1-1 at Cambridge United on 26 September, and 0-0 at home to Milton Keynes Dons on 17 September. All five of those games finished under 2.5 goals. Their away record over 20 games shows 8 of those 20 games ended without them scoring at all.

The head-to-head over the last 12 months is split. Plymouth won 3-1 at AFC Wimbledon's ground on 18 April 2026, but AFC Wimbledon won 2-1 at Plymouth's ground on 18 October 2025. So the most recent meeting at this venue went to the visitors, though that was 11 months ago. The older meetings at Plymouth's ground (a 3-3 draw in 2022 and a 2-0 Plymouth win in 2022) are historical record and don't carry current form weight.

The counter-argument is real. AFC Wimbledon's defensive record in their last five is tight — 4 clean sheets, 0.2 goals conceded per game. They have not lost in five matches. And the one recent meeting at Plymouth's ground went to the visitors. That said, the broader away record (10 losses in 20, 1.65 conceded per game) and the three consecutive draws make it hard to build a case for an AFC Wimbledon win or even a draw at a price of 4.58.

Key Points:

• Plymouth's home record: 11W 4D 5L in 20 games, 1.9 scored and 1.2 conceded per game

• AFC Wimbledon's away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games, 0.95 scored and 1.65 conceded per game

• AFC Wimbledon have drawn their last 3 matches and failed to score in 2 of those 5 games

• Recent head-to-head is split: Plymouth won 3-1 away (April 2026), lost 1-2 at home (October 2025)

• All 5 of AFC Wimbledon's last 5 games finished under 2.5 goals

The football points firmly toward Plymouth, but the 1.53 price on a home win prices in a 65.36% probability, and my own reading of the form, venue records and head-to-head puts the true chance a touch below that figure. There is no clear edge to be had at this price, and the alternative markets — over 2.5 at 1.67, both teams to score at 1.8 — don't offer a gap between the numbers and the market's view either. Discipline says walk away. No Bet.