Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction

Plymouth host AFC Wimbledon on 10 October in League One, and the numbers at Plymouth's ground tell a clear story. Across their last 20 home games, Plymouth have won 11, drawn 4 and lost 5, averaging 1.9 goals scored per game and 1.2 conceded. Their recent form has been strong: three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five matches, with 13 goals scored and only 6 conceded. The 2–0 win at Leyton Orient on 3 October and the 4–2 victory at Blackpool on 19 September show they are scoring freely regardless of ground, and the 5–1 EFL Trophy win over Crystal Palace U21 on 22 September underlines the attacking output they bring to this fixture.

AFC Wimbledon travel with a markedly weaker away record. In their last 20 away games they have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 10, averaging just 0.95 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game. Their current run of three consecutive draws — 0–0 against Barnet and Milton Keynes Dons at home, and 1–1 at Cambridge United — has seen them score only one goal in that stretch. In their last five matches they have scored just four goals and conceded one, with every single game finishing under 2.5 goals. That is a team that is keeping the ball out of its own net but struggling to find the other end.

The head-to-head over the last 12 months is split. Plymouth won 3–1 at AFC Wimbledon's ground in April 2026, while AFC Wimbledon won 1–2 at Plymouth's ground in October 2025. The older meetings at Plymouth's ground — a 3–3 draw and a 2–0 Plymouth win — are historical and do not carry weight for current form. The most recent meeting at this ground went to AFC Wimbledon, and that is the single data point that keeps me from calling this a certainty.

The counter-argument for AFC Wimbledon is their defensive resilience in recent weeks. They have kept four clean sheets in their last five games and conceded only one goal in that span. Their away record does show 8 of 20 games where they failed to score, but they have also kept 3 clean sheets away. The low-scoring nature of their recent matches — all five under 2.5 goals — suggests a tight, low-scoring game is possible even if Plymouth are the stronger side on the evidence. The 0–0 draw against Barnet on 6 October, in which AFC Wimbledon received a red card in the 77th minute, shows they can absorb pressure and hold a result.

Key Points:

• Plymouth's home record: 11W 4D 5L in 20 games, 1.9 goals scored per game, 1.2 conceded per game

• AFC Wimbledon's away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games, 0.95 goals scored per game, 1.65 conceded per game

• AFC Wimbledon have drawn their last three matches, scoring just one goal in that run

• Recent head-to-head is split: Plymouth won 3–1 away, AFC Wimbledon won 1–2 at Plymouth

• AFC Wimbledon's last five games all finished under 2.5 goals

The evidence points to Plymouth as the stronger side at home. But the split head-to-head at this ground, the fact that AFC Wimbledon's last three games have been draws, and their recent defensive solidity mean I cannot attach the level of certainty this fixture demands to any single outcome. No bet.