Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction

Right, so we've got Plymouth hosting AFC Wimbledon on 10 October in League One, and I'm telling you the home side have got the edge here. Not just to be polite — the numbers back it up.

Plymouth's home record over the last 20 games at their ground is 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses. They're scoring 1.9 goals per game and conceding 1.2, with 7 clean sheets in that stretch and only 2 games where they failed to score. Their recent form is firing: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5, with 2.6 goals per game. They beat Blackpool 4-2 away on 19 September, won 2-0 at Leyton Orient on 3 October, and the only blemish was that 0-1 loss to Burton Albion at home on 26 September. The draw at Newport County on 6 October was in the EFL Trophy, so the league form is the one that matters here.

Now look at what AFC Wimbledon are doing on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses. They're scoring 0.95 per game and conceding 1.65. That's a team that struggles away from home, plain and simple. And their last 3 games have been draws — 0-0 at Barnet on 6 October, 1-1 at Cambridge on 26 September, 0-0 at MK Dons on 17 September. They've scored just 1 goal in those 3 games. Yes, they've kept 4 clean sheets in 5, but they're not putting the ball in the net. All 5 of their last 5 games finished under 2.5 goals.

The head-to-head at this venue is a bit thin — just 1 meeting in the last 12 months, and AFC Wimbledon won 2-1 back on 18 October 2025. But the other recent meeting, at AFC Wimbledon's ground on 18 April 2026, was Plymouth winning 3-1. So the last two times these teams met, each side won at the other's ground. The older meetings at Plymouth's ground — a 3-3 draw in 2022 and a 2-0 Plymouth win in 2022 — are historical and don't really tell you what to expect now.

The counter-argument is real though. AFC Wimbledon haven't lost in their last 5 — 2 wins and 3 draws — and their defensive record in that stretch is impressive: 0.2 goals conceded per game, 4 clean sheets. They also picked up a red card in the 77th minute against Barnet. And that 2-1 win at Plymouth's ground 11 months ago shows they can handle this venue. If you're thinking about the total, the Dons are telling you this will be a tight one.

But here's the thing: Plymouth's attack is the story. 2.6 goals per game in the last 5, 2.3 in the last 10, 1.9 at home over 20 games. AFC Wimbledon's away scoring is 0.95 per game, and in their last 5 they've managed 0.8. You've got a team that's scoring consistently at home facing a team that's struggling to find the back of the net on the road. The market has Plymouth at 1.53, which prices them at 65.36%, and I'd put their chance a touch higher than that based on what I'm seeing.

Key Points:

• Plymouth's home record: 11W 4D 5L over 20 games, 1.9 scored per game, 1.2 conceded per game

• AFC Wimbledon's away record: 5W 5D 10L over 20 games, 0.95 scored per game, 1.65 conceded per game

• AFC Wimbledon have drawn their last 3, scoring just 1 goal in that stretch

• Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 away on 18 April 2026

• All 5 of AFC Wimbledon's last 5 games finished under 2.5 goals

My verdict: Plymouth home win.