Portimonense vs Leixoes Prediction

Right then, let's have a look at this Sunday's early kick-off in the Segunda Liga. It's Portimonense hosting Leixoes, and if you're after a glamour tie, you might want to look elsewhere. This is a proper six-pointer down at the bottom, with both sides stuck in the mire. Portimonense are rock bottom with 12 points, while Leixoes are just a point and a place above them. Someone's got to get something here, but will it be pretty? I doubt it.

First up, the home side. Blimey, they've had a rough time of it. Just one win in their last ten, and that was against lower-league Alcochetense in the cup. In the league, it's been a right struggle. They've lost three on the spin, including a 2-0 home defeat to high-flying Maritimo last time out. The worrying stat? They haven't kept a single clean sheet in those ten games. They're conceding nearly two goals a game on average and only scoring 0.8. At home, it's a tiny bit better, letting in 1.33 per game, but they're still not winning much, with just one win in their last six at their place.

As for Leixoes, they're not exactly setting the world alight either. Two wins in ten tells its own story. But here's the thing – they've shown a bit more fight on their travels recently. They nicked a 3-1 win at União de Leiria back in October and grabbed a draw at Vila Meã in the cup. They score more away from home (1.20 per game) than Portimonense do at home. The flip side? They leak goals everywhere. They shipped four at home to FC Porto B and five at home to Academico Viseu. Their defence has more holes than a sieve.

When these two have met before, it's often been close. Three draws in the last five encounters, including two 0-0 stalemates. The last meeting was a 2-1 win for Portimonense back in March. It suggests there's not much between them, which the league table confirms.

So, what's the play? With both teams desperate, it could be a cagey affair. But looking at the numbers, I can't see either defence holding firm. Portimonense can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives, and Leixoes concede an average of 1.60 goals every time they play away. On the other hand, both sides do find the net occasionally. Portimonense have scored in four of their last six at home, and Leixoes have scored in three of their last five on the road.

The bookies have 'Both Teams to Score' at a tasty 1.73. Given that both teams have seen both teams score in 60% of their last ten games overall, that price looks about right to me. This has all the makings of a nervy, error-strewn game where one mistake could lead to a goal at either end.

Key Points:

Relegation Battle: 18th vs 16th. A massive game for both.

Defensive Woes: Portimonense have zero clean sheets in their last 10. Leixoes concede 2.20 goals per game on average.

Away Spark: Leixoes score more away (1.20 pg) than Portimonense do at home (0.83 pg).

Head-to-Head: Tight history, with 3 draws in the last 5 meetings.

• Recent Form: Portimonense: LLLDL. Leixoes: LLDLW.

The Simple Verdict:

This isn't going to be a classic, but I fancy both nets to ripple. Portimonense will be pushing at home, but their defence is too leaky to trust. Leixoes have enough about them to nick a goal on the break. At odds of 1.73, Both Teams to Score - Yes is the call for a bit of value in what should be a scrappy affair.